AGA’s prediction market claims under Kalshi fire
Table of contents
- The AGA says its live counter of gaming tax revenue lost to prediction markets has passed $1bn.
- Kalshi has dismissed the figure as “fake math” from operators protecting their market position.
- The dispute is complicated by Trump family ties to prediction market platforms and the defection of AGA’s own former members to the federal model.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) announced on 28 May that its live tracker of gaming tax dollars lost to prediction markets had crossed $1bn.
The estimate has drawn fierce pushback from platforms, and questions about who is driving the campaign.
The AGA’s case
The AGA, which recently lobbied Capitol Hill to bring prediction market sports event contracts under state gaming law, argues that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket capture sports wagering activity that would otherwise be taxed under state-regulated sportsbook frameworks.
Bill Miller, AGA president and CEO, made the announcement during an appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
“We recently had 41 attorneys general from around the country weighing in saying the CFTC plays an important role in the nation’s economy, but they’re not the regulator of national sportsbooks. 41 attorneys general — that’s from every political stripe that there is in this country.
“It’s not about the AGA or the gaming industry, it’s about states and tribes that are losing literally $1 billion in state and tribal revenue that would otherwise go to fund important community projects and pay taxes to these states.”
Recent Pew Research Center data show sports derivatives accounted for 80% of trading volume on Kalshi from July 2024 through April 2026, a figure the AGA cites to support its argument that prediction market activity is functionally indistinguishable from sports betting.
Miller has separately called the CFTC a “rogue agency”, accusing it of allowing prediction markets to operate as national sportsbooks with minimal oversight.
Kalshi fires back
Elisabeth Diana, spokesperson at Kalshi, said:
“This is fake math from casinos, who are worried about losing their monopoly power. Square that ‘math’ with the fact that the US gaming industry reached a record high last year — $78.7 billion in revenue.”
Diana said:
“This is an industry that preys on people who lose. Of course they’re ok spreading lies. People are coming to prediction markets because they’re fairer, safer, and less predatory than casinos.”
Kalshi’s rebuttal points to a significant backdrop. The US commercial gaming industry posted $78.72bn in gross gaming revenue and a record $18.09bn in gaming taxes in 2025. An industry posting record profits is simultaneously telling Congress it is being financially drained.
The CFTC has backed the platforms throughout, having taken five states to court to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction. Its chairman has also argued that prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbooks because they cannot limit winning customers.
Conflict of interest
The dispute is complicated by who has financial skin in the game.
Donald Trump Jr. has been named a strategic adviser to Kalshi and has also been linked to Polymarket. On 26 May, President Trump posted on Truth Social that it is “critically important” for the CFTC to retain “exclusive authority” over prediction markets, directly benefiting platforms tied to his family.
The AGA’s coalition is fracturing from within. DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365 all resigned their AGA memberships after launching their own CFTC-registered prediction market products. Both DraftKings and FanDuel are now expanding under the federal model the AGA is fighting to dismantle.
Minnesota criminalised prediction markets in a law taking effect 1 August. Kalshi sued to block it, arguing the legislation unconstitutionally intrudes on the CFTC’s authority under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Integrity concerns are mounting too. Federal prosecutors charged a Google engineer with fraud and money laundering after he allegedly used confidential search data to generate $1.2m in Polymarket profits.
Light & Wonder’s CEO Matt Wilson has separately warned that growth has gone parabolic in ways the regulated industry is struggling to absorb.
With federal appeals courts now split on jurisdiction, the dispute is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court. The outcome will determine whether the next phase of US sports wagering is built on state gambling licences or federal derivatives law.
About the author
Bianca Máthe
Bianca Mathe joined the iGaming industry in 2018 and has since built extensive experience across multiple verticals, working with international gaming organizations on editorial, marketing, and media strategy. She brings a strong understanding of the regulatory, commercial, and technological forces shaping the global iGaming sector.
Do you have a story worth sharing?
Send it over to our editors!
