EU forecasts €13B from gambling, crypto and digital levies
Table of contents
- The European Commission has circulated internal estimates that a 3% tax on online gambling net turnover could generate €1.9bn per year, part of a combined €13.3bn forecast over the 2028–2034 cycle from gambling, crypto and digital levies, according to Politico.
- MEPs adopted their budget position 370–201 with 84 abstentions on 28 April, supporting potential new revenue streams including levies on online gambling, digital services and crypto-asset capital gains.
- Any actual tax would require unanimous approval by all 27 member states, with Malta’s opposition Nationalist Party saying it would veto any EU-level online gaming tax.
The European Commission has circulated internal estimates that a potential 3% tax on online gambling net turnover could generate €1.9bn per year for the EU budget, according to a document seen by Politico, as the bloc searches for new revenue sources to finance the 2028–2034 budget cycle.
The figures appear in a document shared with national governments and the European Parliament, forming part of a broader assessment of potential new EU-wide levies. A 3% tax on certain revenue streams from large digital companies is estimated to yield €5bn per year.
Crypto transaction and capital gains taxes are projected to raise €3bn–€4bn per year from a 0.1% transaction tax and €1bn–€2.4bn per year from capital gains, for a combined €4bn–€6.4bn annually. Across the seven-year cycle, the combined return from gambling, crypto and digital levies is forecast at €13.3bn.
The Commission used existing digital taxes in Italy, Spain and France to produce its EU-wide digital levy estimate. For online gambling, a 3% charge on net turnover is the basis of the €1.9bn annual projection.
The analysis adds complexity to ongoing budget negotiations. Cyprus, which holds the Council’s rotating presidency, is set to present a revised budget breakdown around 10 June.
A group of net-contributor states including Germany, the Netherlands and others are pushing to scale back the overall budget, complicating prospects for new own resources.
Parliament’s push
The Commission’s internal staff assessment follows pressure from the European Parliament, which adopted its budget position 370–201 with 84 abstentions on 28 April.
MEPs backed potential new revenue streams including an online gambling levy, a digital services levy and a levy on crypto-asset capital gains, calling for a 10% increase to the Commission’s July 2025 proposal of almost €2 trillion.
The gambling levy was first proposed by Victor Negrescu, Vice-President of the European Parliament and a member of Romania’s Socialists and Democrats party. Negrescu suggested a 1% levy on gross revenue could generate as much as €28bn over the full budget cycle.
The Commission’s internal staff assessment is based on a higher 3% rate applied to net turnover, yielding a more conservative seven-year total of €13.3bn.
The S&D position specifies the levy would complement, not replace, existing national taxation and licensing systems. Several EU leaders asked the Commission to explore Parliament’s options during an informal summit in Cyprus in April, providing the mandate for Thursday’s document.
Parliamentary-level research estimates the European online gambling and betting sector generated approximately €130bn in revenue in 2022, with current volumes potentially approaching €200bn at around 5% annual growth.
Malta in the crosshairs
The gambling levy faces particularly acute resistance from Malta, where the sector accounts for more than 10% of GDP. The country’s opposition Nationalist Party has said it would veto any EU-level online gaming tax if it came to power.
David Casa, a Nationalist MEP, argued during a plenary debate on 20 May that the levy would damage licensed operators and member states with large regulated sectors, providing a boost to the international black market in the process.
The industry’s main trade body shares that concern. The European Gaming and Betting Association described the levy as “fundamentally unworkable” in April, warning it would weaken consumer protections, reduce tax revenue for member states and benefit illegal operators by expanding the black market.
Unanimous approval required
The Commission’s document marks the first time the EU executive has attached concrete revenue projections to the gambling levy concept, elevating it from a parliamentary debating point to a live fiscal option. Its translation into binding policy remains highly uncertain.
Unanimous approval from all 27 EU governments is required, and the Commission’s own original funding proposals contained no gambling component. With Malta’s opposition entrenched and a bloc of net-contributor states pushing to shrink the overall budget, the path to adoption is narrow.
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