Brazil’s betting ban limbo stretches into March

• Congress President Davi Alcolumbre extends MP 1.394/2026 by 60 days, to early March.
• The joint committee that must review the ban has yet to be installed.
• 94 live amendments include proposals to restore sports betting and reinstate licenses.

Brazil’s licensed betting operators will stay offline until at least early March 2027. Congress President Davi Alcolumbre has extended Provisional Measure (MP) 1.394/2026, the decree behind the ban, by 60 days.

The committee meant to review it has yet to be installed.

Why March, not November

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva issued the MP on September 25 and pulled the plug on the licensed market. Sites had to go offline by October 6. Like any provisional measure, it took effect immediately, but it only becomes permanent law if Congress votes for it.

The Constitution gives Congress 60 days for that vote, plus one automatic 60-day extension if the Chamber of Deputies and Senate have not finished. Under Congress’s official calendar, the first window ends on November 23. Alcolumbre signed Act No. 118/2026 on November 10 to formalize the second window, and the Official Gazette published it the next day.

The clock pauses during the recess from December 23 to February 1, which pushes the final deadline into early March. The exact date is either March 4 or March 5, pending confirmation.

No chair, no rapporteur

Before either house can vote, a joint committee of deputies and senators has to review the MP and issue a report. Its members were named on September 30. Seven weeks after the MP was issued, the committee has not been installed. It has no chair, no vice-chair and no rapporteur.

Parties have filled 25 of its 26 seats. The remaining seat is a full Senate seat allocated to the PSB/PSD bloc. The PL has also changed its members, swapping Sóstenes Cavalcante and Alberto Fraga for Capitão Alden and Rodrigo Valadares.

Alden has filed the committee’s only formal request to date. On November 5, he asked for the government’s preparatory documents behind the ban and for a public hearing.

The MP has also been under urgency since November 9. That status locks the voting agenda of the house where the MP sits, which holds up many other votes until it is decided.

A race against recess

The government wants Congress to vote before the recess. José Guimarães, minister for institutional relations, said the administration has made the MP a priority for 2026. Senator Randolfe Rodrigues, a government leader in the Senate, wants it through the committee, the Chamber and the Senate this year.

The timing matters because a new Congress takes office in February. Painel Político expects the legislature elected in October to have a stronger presence on the right, including the PL.

Lula defended the ban again in a speech on November 8. In the Chamber, lawmakers from several parties have launched a pact called “Saúde Não Se Aposta” to press for a faster vote.

Softer bans on paper

Lawmakers filed 99 amendments before the deadline on October 13. Five were later withdrawn, which leaves 94.

Many would weaken the ban. In our analysis of the filings, 15 of Alden’s 17 live amendments would soften the text. They would keep licensed sports betting and online casino, restore existing licenses, refund license fees and exempt prediction markets. One would reinstate every license in full, with no new application and no fee.

Valadares wants derivatives and prediction markets exempted. Brazil already moved against that sector in April, when it blocked around 28 platforms. He also wants sanctions on platforms imposed only by the courts, and tighter limits on blocking orders.

Others draw the line at casino. Senator Dr. Hiran (PP) would allow sports betting and keep casino games banned. There is broad support across the amendments for banning online casino, especially slots, along with casino advertising. That matches where Lula started: in March he called for a casino ban, before widening his target to all betting.

Some amendments push the other way. Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB) wants criminal penalties for running betting sites, and joint liability for banks that process the payments. Deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB) proposes public health care for problem gamblers.

Courts shut the exits

The courts offer no quicker route for now. On November 8, Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux suspended all lower-court cases nationwide that challenge the MP’s constitutionality.

He was responding to a November 6 request from Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet, who warned of conflicting rulings around the country. Those cases stay frozen until the Supreme Court rules on four direct challenges to the MP.

The order also cancels lower-court injunctions. That includes a federal appeals court ruling that had allowed three operators to reopen in São Paulo. Stake had already seen its own exception reversed within 24 hours in October.

The industry’s request to suspend the ban itself, filed on September 28, is still pending. Football clubs, trade bodies and the government made their case at a ten-hour hearing on November 3, which ended without a ruling.

If time runs out

If Congress misses the deadline, the MP lapses and the 2023 Betting Law (Law 14.790/2023) comes back into force. Under the Constitution, Congress then has 60 days to pass a legislative decree governing the effects of the lapsed measure.

Without that decree, the ban’s effects stay in place. License revocations, player refunds, website blocks and fines would all stand. Operators that paid R$30 million for five-year licenses would not get their money back automatically. The Finance Ministry has said they are not entitled to a refund.

The government also cannot reissue a lapsed MP in the same legislative session, so another ban would need a bill. That leaves operators, suppliers and investors with no firm date for a decision, after a quarter that already brought Flutter’s write-downs and a 36% drop in Brazil at Entain.

The next milestone is whether the committee is installed before the December 23 recess. If it is not, the decision passes to a Congress that has not yet been sworn in.