Brazil takes aim at prediction markets, blocks 28 platforms
Table of contents
- Brazil’s National Monetary Council issued Resolution No. 5,298 on April 24, formally excluding event-based derivatives from the legal framework and making prediction markets illegal.
- Telecom regulator Anatel blocked around 28 platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, following a government press conference on Friday last week.
- The ruling adds to a pattern of escalating regulatory pressure, with President Lula calling for a full shutdown of licensed betting and his party filing legislation to reverse gambling legalization entirely.
Brazil’s government declared prediction markets illegal on Friday, with Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Chief of Staff of the Presidency Miriam Belchior confirming at a press conference in Brasília that all platforms offering such products will be blocked.
The CMN adopted Resolution No. 5,298 on Thursday, restricting permissible underlying assets in the derivatives market to economic and financial benchmarks.
Contracts linked to sporting events, online gaming, elections, politics, cultural events and social outcomes are explicitly excluded. The government made the formal announcement on its website.
Platforms confirmed offline
Anatel, Brazil’s national telecommunications agency, blocked around 28 platforms offering event contracts and has indicated it will continue acting against any that emerge.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket were confirmed offline in Brazil on Friday.
Dario Durigan stated the government had examined the issue and concluded that platforms offering bets on event-based outcomes do not comply with the legislation Congress passed for fixed-odds sports betting and online gaming. He said at the press conference:
“Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population. Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that emerge will suffer the same fate.”
Miriam Belchior framed the decision as a consumer protection measure. She said:
“Now, we are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil. We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses.”
Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, said Brazil’s regulatory framework was designed to organise and control specific activities. He said:
“Betting that is not related to sporting events and online games was excluded from this regulation. Any other type of betting is prohibited.”
Resolution 5,298 and Law 14.790
Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said the platforms had attempted to enter Brazil by framing bets as derivative products. She said:
“This is illegal and has not been recognised by the Brazilian government. We have seen these platforms and identified that the dynamics are those of a bet, but not covered by Law 14.790, which only covers fixed-odds betting and online games.”
Dudena added that as prediction markets grew in visibility, it became clear they functioned like betting products without meeting the legal definition. The CMN was asked to clarify what constituted a permissible derivative, resulting in Resolution No. 5,298 formally excluding event-based contracts.
Ricardo Morishita, national consumer secretary, restated the complete prohibition and advised users to access only regulated sites operating under the bet.br domain.
A Kalshi spokesperson said the company is reviewing the resolution. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
The ruling directly affects Kalshi, which announced plans to launch a Brazilian product in partnership with XP International in March. Dudena confirmed that all platforms offering services outside the scope of the CMN resolution would be subject to blocking, regardless of any existing commercial arrangements.
Broader crackdown intensifies
The prediction market ban is the latest move in a rapidly deteriorating environment for gambling operators in Brazil.
On April 8, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told ICL Notícias he would shut down all online sports betting platforms if the decision were his alone, describing the industry as a cause of a “massive tragedy” for Brazilian families.
The comments represented a sharp escalation from his March 2026 call to ban online casinos. Lula himself signed the law legalizing fixed-odds betting in December 2023.
Six days later, on April 14, the ruling Workers’ Party filed Bill PL-1808/2026, which would repeal Laws 13,756 of 2018 and 14,790 of 2023 entirely. Deputy Pedro Uczai introduced the bill with 68 co-signatures, including 65 of the PT’s 66 deputies.
The proposal would also require Anatel to implement domain blocking, app store removal and payment interruption against prohibited platforms.
Analysts note the October 2026 general election is shaping the political tone, with anti-gambling rhetoric becoming an increasingly prominent feature of Lula’s re-election positioning.
Despite that pressure, Brazil’s regulated betting market generated BRL1.03bn ($196.9m) in federal tax revenue in February alone, a 47% year-on-year increase. Since operations launched under the full regulatory framework in January 2025, authorities have blocked more than 39,000 unlicensed betting sites.
Licensed operators have argued that prohibition would redirect players to unregulated offshore platforms and trigger legal action from operators that paid significant licensing fees to enter the market.
Brazil joins France, Hungary and Portugal in having restricted Polymarket, with regulators in those countries similarly concluding that its products constitute gambling requiring appropriate licensing.
For operators with Brazilian exposure, the cumulative weight of the prediction market ban, the PT repeal bill and Lula’s shutdown rhetoric represents a material shift in risk.
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