Argentina bans Polymarket after inflation data controversy
Table of contents
- A Buenos Aires court ordered a nationwide ban on Polymarket on March 16, finding it operated as an unlicensed gambling platform.
- Suspicious trading activity on an inflation contract, recorded roughly 15 minutes before official data was released, triggered the investigation.
- Argentina becomes the 34th country to restrict access to Polymarket and the second in Latin America, following Colombia.
Argentina has banned Polymarket, one of the world’s largest crypto-based prediction market platforms, after a Buenos Aires court ruled the platform operated without authorization and posed unacceptable risks to consumers.
The ruling, issued on March 16, makes Argentina the latest in a growing list of countries to cut off access to the platform entirely.
Suspicious inflation bets spark action
The immediate trigger for the ban was a sharp movement in trading activity on Polymarket ahead of Argentina’s February inflation announcement. Most private analysts had expected inflation of around 2.7%. However, roughly 15 minutes before the official report, which ultimately showed inflation at 2.9%, financial projections on the platform shifted sharply toward the higher figure.
Around $28,000 was wagered on the contract before the data was published, fuelling suspicion among authorities that the official figure may have been accessed ahead of its release.
The episode caught the attention of prosecutors and gambling authorities, who moved quickly. The case began after complaints from the Buenos Aires City Lottery, known as LOTBA, and the Argentine Chamber of Casinos, CASCBA, which claimed that Polymarket functioned as an unauthorized betting platform open to local users without the required gambling licenses.
Following these complaints, prosecutors from FEJA opened a criminal investigation under the supervision of Judge Susana Parada.
Court orders full shutdown
The March 16 ruling directs national communications authority ENACOM to immediately block the platform and all its derivatives via every internet service provider across Argentina. The court also instructed Apple and Google to remove the app from their local stores, with the order aimed at preventing even users who had previously installed the app from accessing it.
The legal basis rested on licensing status and consumer protection rather than a formal finding of market manipulation. Investigators found that users could open accounts within minutes and transact using crypto assets or credit cards, with no identity or age verification in place, factors the court said significantly increased risks for minors.
The platform was formally classified as a concealed online betting system, a designation that carries significant regulatory weight under Argentine law.
Growing global scrutiny
Argentina’s action places it within a rapidly expanding group of jurisdictions that have moved against Polymarket. The platform is now restricted in at least 34 countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Australia and Poland, among others. In some jurisdictions, including Singapore and Taiwan, access is limited to closing existing positions rather than opening new ones.
Regulatory pressure on the platform has been building across multiple fronts. In the US, Nevada issued a temporary restraining order against Polymarket’s operations. Tennessee ordered Polymarket to cease sports betting activity alongside Kalshi and Crypto.com.
In Europe, the Dutch regulator issued Polymarket an ultimatum over its failure to comply with local licensing requirements.
In Latin America, Colombian gaming body calling for a Polymarket ban over concerns about electoral interference. Argentina’s enforcement follows a similar regulatory rationale, though the Buenos Aires case centers on financial data integrity and consumer protection rather than political markets.
The prediction markets sector continues to face inconsistent treatment globally. The CFTC recently dropped a draft rule that would have banned political prediction markets, highlighting ongoing uncertainty around how governments classify and regulate platforms that combine elements of finance, speculation, and gambling, particularly as digital assets continue to expand across global markets.
Predictions moving into mainstream
The Argentina ban also arrives as debate over the sector’s governance intensifies.
Kalshi’s expanding footprint has reignited questions about how regulated and unregulated prediction markets will coexist. Australian operator Betr moved in the opposite direction, integrating Polymarket into its super app via a direct partnership, showing just how inconsistent the global regulatory approach remains.
Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi operates with CFTC oversight in the US and implements identity and age verification, distinctions that regulators in multiple jurisdictions are beginning to weigh more carefully.
The Argentine ruling shows that crypto-native platforms without local licensing face acute enforcement risk, particularly where their activity intersects with sensitive economic data.
Keep reading
Do you have a story worth sharing?
Send it over to our editors!
