American Gaming Association poll: 80% of U.S. voters say sports prediction markets should follow sportsbook rules

• 80% of U.S. voters say sports events contracts should be regulated like online sportsbooks
• 85% view sports events contracts as gambling rather than financial instruments
• 65% favour state and tribal oversight, not federal commodities regulation

The American Gaming Association has released new polling showing broad public support for regulating sports-related prediction market products under the same state frameworks that govern online sportsbooks. It reflects growing scrutiny of “sports events contracts” in the U.S. market as football season begins and new platforms seek entry routes.

The YouGov survey of 2,025 registered voters conducted 1–8 August indicates that most Americans see these products as gambling and want state-level licensing and consumer protections to apply. The findings arrive as prediction platforms test regulatory boundaries and policymakers assess jurisdictional lines with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

According to the research, 85% of respondents classify sports events contracts as gambling rather than a financial instrument, while only 6% view them as akin to a financial product. The poll also finds 80% want these wagers regulated like other online sports betting, signalling a preference for parity in rules and safeguards across similar consumer offerings. This framing could shape regulatory priorities at both state and federal levels in debates over how to treat event-contingent contracts.

Jurisdiction is a central theme. Nearly two thirds of voters, 65%, say state and tribal gaming regulators—not the CFTC—should oversee sports events contracts. The data underscores a desire for continuity with existing sportsbook oversight where licensing, responsible gaming standards and enforcement mechanisms are already established.

States currently authorise and regulate online sports betting in 38 jurisdictions plus Washington, D.C., providing an operational template that voters appear to favour for comparable products.

Access is another pressure point. The survey shows 84% of Americans, and 69% of sports bettors, believe these contracts should be available only through state-licensed sportsbooks in jurisdictions that allow them. In addition, 69% believe each state should decide whether the products can be offered within its borders. These positions, if adopted by policymakers, would likely steer operators toward state licensing pathways and away from federal commodity-market constructs for sports outcomes.

The poll also highlights perceptions that some platforms are exploiting regulatory gray areas. 70% of respondents say prediction platforms offering sports events contracts are using loopholes to operate as unlicensed sportsbooks.

That sentiment could add momentum to enforcement efforts and legislative oversight aimed at clarifying the line between permissible event contracts and prohibited gaming products under federal commodities law.

“This research has made it clear: Americans know a sports bet when they see one—and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller.

“This underscores the need for the CFTC to enforce and uphold its own regulations that prohibit gaming contracts, and for Congress to use its oversight power to ensure prediction markets are not used as a backdoor for gaming.”

The methodology notes an online survey of registered voters with a nationally representative sample and a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. While the poll is a snapshot in time, the consistency of preferences across key questions suggests a clear public expectation for state-led governance aligned with existing sportsbook regimes.

Operators exploring sports event contracts may need to plan for state licensing, responsible gambling programmes and geofenced availability to align with voter sentiment.

For regulators, the data points to a near-term agenda of clarifying jurisdiction, preventing forum-shopping and ensuring consumer protections apply uniformly to functionally similar products.

Investors should watch for rulemakings, CFTC guidance and potential Congressional oversight that could narrow federal pathways and reinforce state frameworks, influencing market access strategies and compliance costs for prediction platforms and sportsbook operators.