Dutch regulator gives Polymarket an ultimatum
Table of contents
- The Netherlands’ Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has issued a formal order requiring Polymarket to block Dutch users immediately or face weekly fines of €420,000, capped at €840,000.
- The KSA classified Polymarket’s prediction markets as illegal gambling under Dutch law, following months of scrutiny over betting on the October 2025 Dutch general elections.
- The action forms part of a broader European crackdown on prediction market platforms, with Polymarket having restricted or ceased access across multiple European jurisdictions.
The Netherlands’ gambling regulator, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), has ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to immediately cease all operations in the country after determining that its services constitute unlicensed online gambling.
The order was issued on 17 February 2026 against Adventure One QSS Inc., the company behind Polymarket, and carries escalating financial penalties. A separate revenue-based fine may follow if the platform does not comply.
Polymarket must block access for Dutch users without delay. Failure to do so will trigger fines of €420,000 per week, doubling to a maximum of €840,000. The KSA noted that a turnover-related fine may be imposed at a later stage.
The action follows months of scrutiny. The KSA first became aware of Polymarket’s Dutch activity after the platform offered prediction markets on the October 2025 parliamentary elections.
Polymarket markets on that election saw over $32 million in trading volume, with substantial sums placed on PVV and D66. Despite prior contact with Polymarket, no visible changes were made and the service remained live for Dutch users.
Illegal gambling, regardless of framing
Polymarket describes itself as a prediction market rather than a gambling operator, positioning its products as information tools. The KSA firmly rejected this.
Under Dutch law, any platform allowing users to stake money on the outcome of an uncertain event for a prize qualifies as a game of chance — a classification that applies regardless of how the operator frames its product.
Ella Seijsener, Director of Licensing and Supervision at the KSA, said:
“Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands. These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by licence holders,” said Seijsener.
Besides the social risks of these kinds of predictions, for example, the potential influence on elections, we conclude that this constitutes illegal gambling. Anyone without a KSA licence has no business in our market. This also applies to these new gambling platforms.
Pattern of escalating enforcement
The authority has previously fined two operators a combined €4.98 million for compliance failures, ordered Bet365 to strengthen affordability checks, and targeted One Casino and Bet365 for prohibited youth football betting.
It has also contacted betting operators over misleading early payout terms. For 2026, the regulator has stated it will extend scrutiny beyond licensed operators to target B2B suppliers directly.
On the governance side, the KSA recently appointed Carol Verheij as its new vice-chair, signalling continued leadership investment ahead of that expanded agenda.
The KSA has also questioned government proposals to ban gambling advertising outright, warning that a blanket restriction could push players towards unlicensed offshore platforms rather than reduce harm.
Growing European enforcement pressure
Polymarket has already restricted or ceased access in multiple European jurisdictions, including Belgium and Portugal, amid regulatory pressure in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
In the UK, the Gambling Commission has recently confirmed that prediction market operators must obtain gambling licences to serve British consumers, stating that these models would fall within the betting intermediary licence category under UK law.
In Belgium, internet service providers block the site at the network level. Portuguese media and legal commentators reported that the country’s regulator moved against Polymarket after it offered markets on the presidential election held earlier this year.
Polymarket agreed to block all American users in 2022 as part of a $1.4 million CFTC settlement. The company later re-entered the US market via a CFTC-regulated structure, acquiring QCX LLC in 2025 and securing approval to offer event contracts again under federal supervision.
The platform has also drawn regulatory complaints in states such as Nevada and Tennessee, and faces litigation in New York challenging its business model.
Regulatory implications
The contrast between European and American approaches to prediction markets is sharpening. In the US, recent CFTC decisions reflect a more open stance toward regulated event contracts in limited forms, offering platforms a narrow path to operate under federal supervision.
European regulators are moving in the opposite direction, applying existing gambling frameworks firmly and without exception.
How that divergence resolves, whether courts ultimately treat prediction market contracts as derivatives or as wagers, will determine whether a platform can legally operate in one major jurisdiction while being banned in another.
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About the author
Bianca Máthe
Bianca Mathe joined the iGaming industry in 2018 and has since built extensive experience across multiple verticals, working with international gaming organizations on editorial, marketing, and media strategy. She brings a strong understanding of the regulatory, commercial, and technological forces shaping the global iGaming sector.
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