Spain keeps prediction markets inside gambling law

• Spain’s DGOJ says prediction markets offering gambling products need a Spanish licence.
• The regulator has created no new licensing category, so Law 13/2011 remains the test.
• Its cases against Polymarket and Kalshi, opened in May, still have no public ruling.

Spain’s gambling regulator has told prediction market operators they need a domestic licence before serving Spanish customers if their products qualify as gambling under Spanish law.

Mikel Arana, Director General of the Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ), set out the position at MERGE Madrid 2026 on 30 October, Casino News Daily reported.

Mechanics over labels

Arana spoke on a panel devoted to regulatory visions for prediction markets. MERGE Madrid is a crypto, blockchain and Web3 conference that brings together regulators, financial institutions and digital asset businesses.

His message was blunt. Platforms offering products that constitute gambling under Law 13/2011 must hold the corresponding licence. Prediction markets in that bracket that lack authorisation cannot legally operate in Spain.

The DGOJ also confirmed that it continues to restrict access from Spain to unauthorised services. That follows the precautionary blocks it ordered when it targeted Kalshi and Polymarket in May.

What the regulator left out is just as telling. It announced no separate licensing category, no legislative amendments and no alternative route to authorisation.

The deciding factor is how a product works. The DGOJ assesses whether a platform’s offering meets the legal definition of gambling, regardless of how the business markets itself.

Arana still called for a clearer approach. He said Spain needs a regulatory vision that accounts for prediction markets and their relationship with existing betting rules.

The cross-bet question

Spain already has a category that fits much of this activity. The law covers cross bets, where an operator intermediates wagers between third parties instead of taking the other side.

Authorities have previously used that classification to describe prediction market activity. It fits a model of stakes on uncertain future outcomes, with the platform earning a commission.

That opens a door for licensed operators. A Gaming in Spain webinar earlier this year highlighted that prediction-style betting on sport could already sit within current rules, provided the operator acts only as an intermediary.

Clock still running

The DGOJ opened proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi in May and ordered both websites blocked as a precaution. The ministry initially expected the process to take three to four months.

That window has passed. The 30 October announcement gave no update on either case and did not confirm a final decision.

Both companies remain blocked in Spain. There is still no formal ruling on whether their products constitute unlicensed gambling under Spanish law.

Europe’s patchwork rulebook

Spain is one voice in an increasingly fragmented European debate over how to classify event contracts.

Malta is developing dedicated rules for the sector. The Malta Gaming Authority has already approved Hacksaw’s licence extension for a B2B prediction markets platform. Gibraltar has sought to attract prediction market businesses first. Nevis has also released its framework earlier this week.

Other regulators have gone the opposite way. Italy has blocked Polymarket, and France’s gambling regulator previously pushed the company to stop French users accessing it.

Enforcement is tightening in the Asian market too. A New Taipei court recently authorised website blocks on Kalshi in Taiwan. In the US, Utah prosecutors have filed 14 criminal counts against Kalshi and its co-founders.

Wall Street comes calling

None of this has cooled investor appetite. Kalshi disclosed a fresh $1bn funding round to Reuters on 29 October, lifting its valuation to $40bn. In May, a Coatue-led round of the same size valued it at $22bn.

Three days before the raise, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi announced a strategic collaboration. Kalshi will list contracts settled against official S&P index values. S&P DJI will work on new indices built from Kalshi event contract data.

Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, said:

“Kalshi’s aspiration is to be the next great financial exchange.”

Kalshi and Polymarket have also approached the London Stock Exchange and Euronext. Both companies are seeking support for recognising prediction markets within financial services.

Index and data licensing could give these platforms a foothold in international finance. It does not grant permission to offer trading in a market like Spain. That remains a separate regulatory question, and Madrid has made clear where it currently stands.

The product decides

For any platform eyeing Spain, the first question is now product design. A contract that meets the gambling definition needs a DGOJ licence. One that sits outside it faces a different and still undefined path.

Licensed operators are unlikely to welcome any gap. They already carry heavy compliance costs, including the new €700 daily cross-operator deposit cap, which operators must comply with by March 2027. An unlicensed rival offering similar products would carry none of them.

The reform of Law 13/2011 is the obvious vehicle for a dedicated framework. Its public consultation closed on 22 June, and the DGOJ is expected to prepare a draft bill for Congress and the Senate.