Hacksaw bets on prediction markets as growth cools

• Hacksaw launches a B2B platform for operator-branded prediction markets.
• MGA approves extension of its supplier licence to Type 3 Gaming Services.
• Launch follows a Q3 update showing year-on-year revenue growth slowing to 11% to 12%, down from 31% in Q2.

Hacksaw has launched a B2B prediction markets platform that lets licensed operators run peer-to-peer event trading under their own brands.

The Stockholm-listed supplier unveiled the product on 15 October, alongside a Malta Gaming Authority (MGA) approval extending its licence to cover it.

A Maltese green light

The MGA has approved an extension of Hacksaw’s B2B Critical Gaming Supply licence to include Type 3 Gaming Services, on top of its existing Type 1 authorisation, according to the company’s launch announcement.

Type 1 is Malta’s category for games of chance played against the house, where Hacksaw’s slots sit. Type 3 covers player-versus-player formats such as poker and betting exchanges, where the licensee carries no gaming risk and earns a commission.

The extension authorises Hacksaw to supply B2B peer-to-peer prediction market services under the MGA framework. It does not give operators blanket clearance to go live with players, so each partner will need to assess its own licensing position market by market.

Hacksaw is not launching an exchange to compete with Kalshi or Polymarket. It will supply the technology, infrastructure and volume frameworks, with operators retaining their brands, player relationships and front-end experience.

No launch partners or go-live date have been confirmed.

Ana Vrabic Verdir, Group CEO of Hacksaw Group, said:

“Prediction markets represent a compelling new opportunity at the intersection of technology, entertainment and market participation. We believe our existing platform, distribution capabilities and operator relationships position us exceptionally well to help businesses participate in this category.”

Liquidity is the product

In a prediction market, users trade contracts on future outcomes, from elections to football results. Prices shift as positions change hands, so a contract’s price can track the market’s implied probability.

Under the peer-to-peer model Hacksaw describes, the operator is not the house and does not take the other side of every trade. Every position still needs a counterparty, and a single operator going live on its own may not have the player base to provide one.

Hacksaw is pitching a connected volume framework to solve that problem. Participation is pooled across its operator network, so a new partner can draw on activity from other Hacksaw clients from day one.

The supplier calls thin early volume one of the fundamental challenges for any new peer-to-peer offering. It built the platform within its existing cost base, using its current technology stack and in-house developers.

Marcus Cordes, Operational CEO of Hacksaw Gaming, said:

“We have created a solution that enables operators to access prediction market capabilities efficiently and at scale. Because we already work closely with operators across multiple jurisdictions, we believe we can provide a streamlined path to market while leveraging the technology, integrations and commercial infrastructure that we have spent years developing.”

Beyond the reels

Founded in 2018, Hacksaw built its business as a content supplier, with slots, scratch cards and instant win games. Its OpenRGS platform also distributes partner-studio titles, and its games are live in more than 40 locally licensed markets.

Margins have been the headline for investors. Second-quarter revenue rose 31% to €59.3 million, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 82%.

Q3 was slower. The preliminary update on 12 October put revenue at around €57.5 million to €58.5 million, up 11% to 12% year on year. Adjusted EBIT is expected at €48 million to €49 million, a margin of about 83%.

Hacksaw put growth below its historical pace down to softer market conditions and weaker game performance. Long-term financial targets are unchanged, and the Q3 interim report lands on 3 November.

The launch also comes under new leadership. Board member Vrabic Verdir stepped in as interim Group CEO in April following Christoffer Källberg’s dismissal, and was appointed permanently in August.

It is the group’s second diversification move this year. In March, it launched Hacksaw Ventures, an investment arm offering capital and distribution to early-stage companies, with partner studios Kitsune Studios and Jinx Gaming in its portfolio.

Regulators draw lines

Hacksaw is moving into one of the industry’s fastest-growing and most contested verticals. The company cites Bernstein, which estimates annual prediction market trading volumes could reach around $1 trillion by 2030.

Enforcement has so far targeted the consumer-facing exchanges. In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a proposed rule that would define swaps to include event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather.

Ohio’s Casino Control Commission has ordered 10 platforms, including Polymarket, Robinhood and Coinbase, to stop offering sports event contracts. Their deadline to confirm compliance in writing is today, 16 October.

The federal courts are split. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey in April, but a Ninth Circuit panel upheld Nevada’s power to police its sports contracts in August. New Jersey has since petitioned the US Supreme Court.

European regulators have mostly reached for blocking orders. Spain’s gambling regulator ordered precautionary blocks on Kalshi and Polymarket earlier this year, pending disciplinary proceedings over alleged unlicensed operation. France, the Czech Republic and Denmark each moved to block Polymarket over the summer.

In September, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said the largest platforms generally lack the EU authorisation required to sell event contracts. It also flagged insider trading and market manipulation risks.

Gibraltar went the other way, licensing its first prediction markets operator, Predict Street, in March. Malta has said it is exploring a dedicated framework, and Hacksaw’s approval sits within its existing peer-to-peer category.

A step into a new direction

Hacksaw’s structure keeps it apart from the exchanges facing those actions. It sells to licensed operators, not players, and its approval comes from a gambling regulator rather than a financial watchdog.

That setup may suit European operators wary of the exchange model. It also leaves distribution dependent on how each regulator classifies peer-to-peer event trading, a question few have answered.

Shares rose 3.44% to SEK57.15 during Thursday’s session in Stockholm. The Q3 report on 3 November is the first opportunity for management to put named operators behind the launch.