Gibraltar launches world’s first prediction market regime

• Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026 took effect on 13 July, creating the world’s first standalone licensing regime for the sector.
• ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official prediction market partner, and WagerWire’s Wire Markets are the first two operators moving onto the new framework.
• The move comes as rising UK Remote Gaming Duty pushes Gibraltar to diversify, while Malta and other EU states weigh their own approaches.

Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction in the world to introduce a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, with the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 taking effect on 13 July.

Published by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry, the rules carve prediction markets out of the territory’s Gambling Act 2025 and place them under a bespoke licensing regime overseen by an independent supervisory panel.

A world first

The regulations, formally called the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, were published in the Gibraltar Gazette on Monday.

They adopt what the government describes as an activity-based, risk-based approach, addressing market integrity, participant protection, financial crime prevention and operational resilience. Individual event contracts must still be approved by the Gibraltar Gambling Authority, which retains oversight alongside the new panel.

Nigel Feetham, Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said the framework reflected months of consultation with industry.

“This framework is the product of extensive engagement with industry professionals, prospective operators and investors over recent months. It reflects Gibraltar’s collaborative approach to regulation and demonstrates that innovation and robust regulatory standards can go hand in hand.”

The independent supervisory panel draws on experience regulating other technology-enabled markets.

Two early movers

ADI Predictstreet, previously covered when it became Gibraltar’s first prediction market licence holder, gained a betting intermediary licence on 26 March under the previous 2005 Gambling Act. The platform, built on the ADI Chain blockchain, will now transition onto the dedicated regime.

Wire Markets, the prediction platform run by California-based WagerWire, received approval in principle in June and is the second operator expected to move under the new rules.

Travis Geiger, co-founder of WagerWire, said:

“By focusing on market integrity, innovation, and responsible oversight, Gibraltar has established a thoughtful framework that gives operators the clarity they need to build for the long term. We’re incredibly proud to have worked alongside HM Government of Gibraltar throughout this process and excited for what comes next.”

Wire Markets is aiming to launch a combined B2B and B2C product ahead of the international club football season in August.

FIFA deal fuels growth

ADI Predictstreet’s Gibraltar licence sits alongside its status as FIFA’s official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup, an appointment confirmed in April and covered in our report on ADI Predictstreet brings Kalshi to FIFA’s biggest stage. The tie-up has since expanded into distribution deals with Kalshi, the UK’s Matchbook exchange across Britain, Ireland and Brazil, and a co-branded hub with Fanatics Markets in the US.

In June, supplier BetConstruct AI agreed a partnership to integrate ADI Predictstreet’s product, along with official match streaming rights, into its platform for operators across Europe and selected international markets.

Vigen Badalyan, co-founder of BetConstruct AI, said:

“Partnering with ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s Official Prediction Market Partner, marks another important step in expanding the capabilities of the BetConstruct AI ecosystem.”

Europe’s fractured landscape

Gibraltar’s approach sets it apart from much of the rest of Europe, where regulatory treatment of prediction markets remains fragmented.

Nine regulators, including those in France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Switzerland, have signed a joint statement warning of consumer protection risks and have moved to block or restrict platforms such as Polymarket.

Some treat the products as unlicensed gambling, others as unauthorised financial instruments, a split recently flagged by Europe’s securities watchdog.

Malta’s parallel push

Malta is the other European jurisdiction actively working on the vertical, though it has not yet gone as far as Gibraltar.

The Malta Gaming Authority has said prediction market products may already fall under its existing Type 2 (fixed-odds) or Type 3 (peer-to-peer and exchange-based) licence categories, as reported when Malta set to lead EU on prediction markets.

Economy Minister Silvio Schembri has said the government is “actively exploring” a dedicated legislative framework, and Prime Minister Robert Abela has pledged to give the MGA explicit powers to license the sector.

Diversifying under pressure

The push into prediction markets comes as Gibraltar’s gambling sector faces pressure from rising UK Remote Gaming Duty, now set at 40%. The UK remains the core market for most Gibraltar-licensed operators, and gambling accounts for roughly a quarter of the territory’s GDP.

Combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, including its US-regulated arm, reached $44.8 billion in June, according to data compiled by The Block, underlining the scale of the opportunity Gibraltar is positioning itself to capture.

Other jurisdictions will be watching closely to see how the new regime performs as more operators come under its scope. Feetham has said further approvals in principle are expected in the coming weeks, suggesting Gibraltar’s pipeline of prediction markets entrants is only beginning to build.