Polymarket set to relaunch in U.S. after CFTC self-certification, ending three-year absence

• Prediction platform Polymarket could relaunch legally in the United States as early as Thursday following regulatory self-certification
• The company moved up its launch date from 7 October to 2 October after filing sports and election market contracts with the CFTC
• Americans on Polymarket’s waiting list will receive text messages directing them to register for the platform

Polymarket is set to relaunch its prediction platform for US users as early as Thursday, 2 October, after self-certifying sports events contracts and election markets with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday.

The company moved up its launch date from 7 October to 2 October following updated regulatory filings.

Regulatory approvals

The United States-facing version of the global prediction market gained regulatory approval from the CFTC to launch last month, according to CEO Shayne Coplan. The self-certification filing was completed through QCEX, a CFTC-certified site that Polymarket purchased to gain market access.

The platform intends to offer athletic event contracts, athletics spreads contracts, total score contracts, and election-winner event contracts to US users.

Three-year absence ends

Polymarket’s US relaunch comes three years after the CFTC ordered the company to stop operating in the States. In January 2022, Polymarket agreed to block US users and paid a $1.4 million civil penalty for operating an unregulated exchange.

Americans who registered for Polymarket’s waiting list will receive text messages directing them to the site for registration, according to a message on the platform’s homepage.

Strategic acquisition

Polymarket gained tacit approval from the CFTC to resume US business through a no-action letter posted on 3 September. Following clarification of what industry analysts viewed as minor issues regarding “swaps” trading, Coplan declared a “green light to go live” had been granted.

The company fast-tracked its return by purchasing the certified QCEX exchange in July, eliminating the typical three-year approval process required for CFTC certification.

The acquisition coincided with the Department of Justice ending investigations into whether Polymarket had continued serving US customers despite its regulatory ouster.

Implications for market leader Kalshi

Polymarket’s return poses a direct challenge to Kalshi, which has recently overtaken its rival as the dominant prediction platform. Kalshi captured 62% of total prediction market volume from September 11-17, processing over $500 million in weekly trading whilst Polymarket held 37% market share.

The regulatory advantage that propelled Kalshi to market leadership may now diminish as both platforms operate under federal oversight. Kalshi’s monthly trading volumes of $1.3 billion nearly double Polymarket’s $821 million, but analysts expect increased competition to reshape market dynamics.

Industry experts anticipate a “land grab for sports betting via prediction markets” as both platforms compete for the rapidly expanding US market. Sports betting now accounts for over 70% of Kalshi’s trading volume, generating $13.7 billion in revenue last year with projections of reaching $39 billion by 2030.