Seven things we learned from DraftKings’ 2026 Investor Day

DraftKings Inc. (Nasdaq: DKNG) held its 2026 Virtual Investor Day on Monday (March 2), delivering a sweeping presentation that covered everything from a new super app to a full prediction markets roadmap, in-house casino content and long-term financial targets.

The event came at a tense moment for the Boston-based operator, whose stock has fallen more than 50% since August 2025 under pressure from prediction market rivals such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Here are the seven biggest takeaways.

The super app is coming before March Madness

DraftKings announced plans to launch DraftKings Sports & Casino, a unified app that brings together its sportsbook, DraftKings Predictions, online casino and Jackpocket lottery products under one roof. The app will use a single account and wallet, with the product offering tailored to each state’s regulatory framework.

In states with legal online sports betting, customers will see the full sportsbook. In states without regulated wagering, they will see sports event contracts through DraftKings Predictions. Casino and lottery will appear where permitted. Only daily fantasy sports will remain separate.

Phase one of the integration is expected ahead of the NCAA March Madness tournaments. Further upgrades are planned throughout 2026.

“We now have a sports product everywhere for customers across the entire country,” said Jason Robins, CEO and co-founder of DraftKings.

The cross-sell opportunity is already baked into the existing platform. DraftKings revealed that 62% of total casino handle currently comes from the embedded casino within its sportsbook app. The super app strategy aims to replicate that dynamic across predictions, lottery and casino in every jurisdiction.

Around 80% to 90% of the company’s roughly 11 million customers engage annually within the primary app. That gives DraftKings a built-in sports audience to cross-sell event contracts through the super app without requiring users to download a separate platform.

Prediction markets are the main growth story

DraftKings positioned prediction markets as the single biggest growth opportunity on its roadmap. Jeanine Hightower-Sellitto, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Predictions, presented the company’s 2026 timeline.

It stretches from the initial CME Group exchange launch in December 2025 through expanded offerings via Crypto.com, combo-style products, in-house market making, the launch of Railbird (DraftKings’ own designated contract market) and ultimately full in-house exchange technology including futures commission merchant (FCM) and derivatives clearing organization (DCO) capabilities.

“We believe predictions could represent a $10 billion annual gross revenue opportunity in the years ahead, and we intend to lead in this category,” said Hightower-Sellitto.

The vertical integration approach mirrors the playbook DraftKings used to build its sportsbook technology stack. Rather than relying on third-party exchanges long-term, the company plans to own the full trading infrastructure by the end of 2026.

DraftKings has guided for $50 million to $200 million in prediction markets spending this year. The wide range signals uncertainty about how aggressively the company will need to invest to compete with incumbents such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Market making is being positioned as a second revenue engine

One detail that received less attention than the headline announcements was DraftKings’ plan to operate as a market maker on both its own Railbird exchange and on competitors’ designated contract markets.

CEO Robins described market making as a separate revenue stream that sits on top of the transaction fees DraftKings will collect as a broker. The company intends to leverage its existing sports pricing and risk management capabilities to provide liquidity across prediction market exchanges.

Jefferies analyst David Katz flagged this as a potential catalyst ahead of the event.

“A key point in DKNG’s strategy is market making, which could lead to a wide range of outcomes,” Katz wrote in a note to clients, adding that DraftKings’ risk management expertise could be a strong differentiator.

If the market-making division performs well, it would give DraftKings two distinct ways to monetize prediction markets: fees from customer transactions and trading profits from providing liquidity. That dual-revenue model does not exist in traditional sportsbook operations.

Prediction margins could beat sportsbook margins

One of the most closely watched data points from the presentation was the margin outlook for predictions. DraftKings estimates prediction markets will carry 10% to 30% higher adjusted gross margins than its traditional sportsbook.

The margin advantage comes from three structural differences. Sports event contracts fall under federal CFTC oversight rather than state gambling commissions, meaning they are not subject to traditional state gaming taxes. Content costs are lower. And the exchange-based model creates different unit economics from a traditional sportsbook.

If those projections hold, prediction markets could become DraftKings’ most profitable vertical on a percentage basis. That would reshape how Wall Street values the company and how competitors allocate their own resources.

The addressable market could more than double by 2030

Management presented a total addressable market (TAM) thesis projecting US and Canadian industry gross revenue will grow from roughly $34 billion in 2025 to between $55 billion and $80 billion by 2030.

The breakdown by category tells the story. Sports (sportsbook plus sports predictions) is projected to nearly double from $17 billion to between $31 billion and $36 billion.

Casino could almost triple from $14 billion to between $19 billion and $38 billion. Other verticals, including fantasy, lottery and non-sports predictions, are expected to grow from $3 billion to between $5 billion and $6 billion.

The forecast depends on continued state legalization of sports betting and iGaming, growth within existing jurisdictions and the nationwide expansion of prediction markets. Large states such as California, Texas and Florida, where traditional sportsbooks are not yet live, represent the most obvious upside.

The financial turnaround is real

DraftKings used the Investor Day to reinforce the scale of its financial transformation. The company posted record results in fiscal 2025: revenue rose 27% to more than $6 billion, Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $620 million from $181 million a year earlier and the company achieved positive net income for the first time since going public in 2020.

Q4 2025 revenue reached a record $1.99 billion, a 43% year-over-year increase. Sportsbook handle during the peak NFL months climbed 13% to $16.8 billion. Online casino delivered a record $500 million in quarterly revenue.

The company is now targeting at least 30% long-term Adjusted EBITDA margins, with potential upside as it scales. For fiscal 2026, guidance calls for revenue between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion and Adjusted EBITDA between $700 million and $900 million.

Cumulative customer acquisition costs have declined more than 40% since 2020. Monthly unique payers held steady at 4.8 million in Q4. Average revenue per monthly unique payer jumped 43% year-over-year to $139.

The Investor Day also arrives just days before co-founder Matt Kalish officially steps down from his executive role on March 31. Kalish, who co-founded DraftKings in 2012 and served as president since 2020, will remain on the board.

AI is already deployed at scale

DraftKings dedicated a portion of its presentation to artificial intelligence, and the numbers suggest the operator is well beyond the experimentation phase.

In 2025, AI automated and personalized $400 million in promotional spend. The company reported a 40% improvement in engineering productivity through AI-assisted code reviews and achieved 100% containment on chatbot customer service interactions.

Specific tools include Betty for trading analytics and RiskSeek for automated fraud detection. In-house pricing and trading intelligence captured more than $50 million in gross gaming revenue during periods when competitors’ platforms were unavailable. Live betting represented a 54% handle mix in 2025.

And two more things worth watching

The in-house casino studio is quietly a powerhouse. DraftKings’ proprietary casino games studio generated more than $30 billion in handle and $550 million in GGR in 2025, making it the company’s top content provider.

The studio launched 26 new games during the year, including 15 slot titles. Its Rocket game, built around an “Exit Bet” mechanic, drove $100 million in GGR alone.

A new stock-ticker-themed exit bet game called Day Trader is launching in Q1 2026. DraftKings’ platform also paid out the largest online jackpot in US history at $22 million to a Michigan playerr.

The in-house content strategy gives DraftKings both a margin advantage over operators reliant on third-party suppliers and a product differentiation tool that competitors cannot easily replicate.

Responsible gaming is being extended to predictions. Lori Kalani, DraftKings’ Chief Responsible Gaming Officer, confirmed that customers using DraftKings Predictions will have access to deposit limits, cool-off periods, self-exclusion tools and educational resources.

The company reported more than 58 million visits to its Responsible Gaming Center and a 54% decline in customer service ticket rates since 2023. DraftKings also holds the number one ranking in both customer satisfaction and responsible gaming.

“We believe responsible engagement shouldn’t depend on the product. It should be consistent across the entire DraftKings experience,” said Kalani.

This is a notable differentiation point. Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi offer risk disclosures and trading controls, but DraftKings’ approach more closely mirrors the structured responsible gaming systems developed in state-regulated sportsbook markets.

As the CFTC moves to draft new rules for sports event contracts, operators that can demonstrate robust player protection frameworks may hold an advantage in regulatory discussions.

The bigger picture

DraftKings’ Investor Day delivered a message aimed squarely at investors who have watched the stock lose more than half its value in six months.

The argument is straightforward: the super app creates nationwide distribution, prediction markets unlock structurally higher margins, vertical integration protects the competitive moat and in-house content strengthens the casino business.

March Madness will provide the first real-world test of the super app strategy. For the broader industry, the implications run deeper. If DraftKings’ margin thesis holds, every major operator will face pressure to develop or acquire prediction market infrastructure.

The ESPN partnership and national marketing reach give DraftKings a head start in converting sports fans into prediction market users across all 50 states. The state-by-state patchwork that has defined American sports betting since 2018 may be entering its most transformative period yet.

Keep reading

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• DraftKings expands prediction markets catalogue in deal with Crypto.com