Prediction markets hit first $11 billion weekend

• Prediction markets traded more than $11 billion in notional volume over October 17–18.
• Kalshi captured 58.4% of weekend volume after back-to-back $4 billion days.
• DraftKings Predictions grew almost 46% in a week to $567.8 million.

US prediction market operators traded more than $11 billion in notional volume over the October 17–18 weekend, a first for the sector. A packed college football Saturday and NFL Week 6 powered the record, according to Aldrin Research figures published by Covers.

Saturday breaks $6 billion

Saturday produced $6.03 billion, the largest single day Aldrin Research has recorded. College football drove the activity. Ohio State’s Big Ten win over Indiana drew nearly $95 million, while Notre Dame-BYU followed at $92.7 million.

Volume extended well beyond the top two games. Nebraska-Oregon and Florida State-Miami each passed $67 million. Memphis-Tulane and Washington-Purdue cleared $50 million apiece on Friday night.

Sunday added $5.74 billion from nine of the 11 tracked operators, up 3.6% week over week. Robinhood, Crypto.com and ProphetX had filed only partial data by Monday morning, so the final figure could be higher.

The previous weekend had already set a record, with operators trading more than $10.5 billion over October 10–11.

Kalshi goes back to back

Kalshi traded $4.4 billion on Saturday, its first day above $4 billion. That was a 12.4% rise on the previous Saturday. On Sunday, it passed $4.1 billion, despite four NFL teams being on a bye.

Trackers that count by UTC day split the weekend differently. DeFi Rate puts Kalshi’s biggest day on October 18 because late Saturday games in the US fall into the next day on its calendar. On either count, both days finished above $4 billion.

Over the two days, Kalshi handled $8.51 billion, or 58.4% of all tracked notional volume. Its taker volume, which analysts often use as a rough comparison with sportsbook handle, reached $1.89 billion.

The exchange first crossed $3 billion in a day in mid-September and reached $3.96 billion on October 11. Artemis data, cited by Cryptopolitan, puts its week ending October 18 at $21.5 billion, which DeFi Rate also lists as Kalshi’s largest week.

The rest of the field

Polymarket’s US exchange took about 10% of weekend volume and passed $1 billion, according to Covers. Its Sunday figures were still pending.

DraftKings Predictions came third with $567.8 million, up almost 46% on the previous weekend. DraftKings has said that moving Predictions into its main app cut customer acquisition costs by more than 80% in April.

The product is also the subject of a lawsuit in Florida. The Seminole Tribe has sued DraftKings, alleging its prediction markets operate as an illegal sportsbook in breach of state law and the tribe’s gaming compact.

Crypto.com was fifth with more than $288 million in partly reported trading. Its Saturday volume of $195.8 million was 80% higher than on October 10.

Parlays drive the totals

Combo contracts accounted for most of the activity. On Sunday, they generated $3.7 billion, compared with $1.44 billion in sports markets. Multi-market trading on Saturday passed $4 billion.

Kalshi’s full-week data shows the same split. Combos produced $14.35 billion between October 12 and 18, or 67.2% of its volume, according to Artemis. The same data showed little movement in election contracts ahead of the November 3 midterms.

Single-game markets still drew large sums. Cowboys-Packers attracted $185.9 million across reporting operators, including $134.5 million on Kalshi. Bills-Raiders and the Texans-Jaguars game in London each topped $57 million on the exchange.

Kalshi’s NFL volume fell, however. It reported $497.2 million on Sunday, down from $575 million a week earlier.

Notional, not cash

Prediction market volume is usually measured at each contract’s $1 settlement value, not at the price traders pay. This makes headline totals much larger than the money changing hands.

For the week of October 5–11, DeFi Rate calculated Kalshi’s execution-price volume at $4.42 billion. The headline contract figure for the same week was $19.03 billion.

Macquarie measures taker volume for this reason. Its analysts estimate that notional figures count activity approximately three times over. On its own measure, the bank still forecasts $187 billion in prediction market volume for 2026.

States push back

The CFTC’s interim final rule, which removes licensed sportsbook and casino wagers from the swap definition, took effect upon publication in the Federal Register on October 19. Comments are due within 30 days. A companion proposal to classify event contracts as swaps has not yet been approved.

Ohio gave 10 platforms, including Polymarket, Robinhood and Coinbase, until October 16 to stop offering sports contracts, following a Sixth Circuit ruling in the state’s favor. Kalshi did not receive a letter.

Connecticut recently became the fifth state where Google blocks prediction market ads, including ads from federally regulated exchanges.

The dispute over who regulates sports event contracts could end at the top. Robinhood and Crypto.com have asked the US Supreme Court to decide whether federal law prevents states from regulating them.