Malta set to lead EU on prediction markets
Table of contents
- Economy Minister Silvio Schembri signals Malta is actively exploring a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets.
- The announcement came yesterday (25 March) during the inauguration of Blockchain.com‘s new Valletta offices.
- As of early 2026, no EU member state has yet established specific rules for the sector, leaving operators in a legal grey area.
Malta could become the first country in the European Union to introduce a bespoke regulatory framework for prediction markets, after Minister for the Economy, Enterprise and Strategic Projects Silvio Schembri publicly confirmed the government is examining how best to govern the fast-growing sector.
The minister described prediction markets as the next major opportunity for Malta’s digital economy, and confirmed the government is studying how it can regulate them.
The comments were made yesterday (25 March) during the official opening of Blockchain.com’s Malta office in Valletta, which was also attended by Prime Minister Robert Abela.
A familiar playbook
Malta has form when it comes to staking out early positions in emerging digital sectors. Schembri played a central role in making Malta the first jurisdiction to establish a legal regulatory framework for blockchain services, a move that helped attract international operators and cement the island’s reputation as a hub for digital finance.
Officials now appear to be applying the same logic to prediction markets. Such a move would not only set Malta apart within the EU, but also give companies operating in this space a defined legal environment from which to serve the wider European market.
Schembri was clear in setting out the government’s intention. In his own words:
“We are actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid global momentum which presents significant opportunities for innovation, provided it is supported by a clear, forward-looking legislative framework that enables it to develop responsibly and at scale.”
No EU regulation yet
Prediction markets have attracted increasing attention from operators seeking a regulated European base, but their growth raises a fundamental question any prospective provider must address at the outset: under EU law, and the laws of each respective member state, does a prediction market constitute a financial product, a gaming service, or something else entirely?
That ambiguity has real consequences. If a platform falls within the scope of EU financial services law, principally MiFID II, or within the scope of gaming and betting regulation determines licensing obligations, distribution restrictions, and the viability of cross-border operations across the EU.
Gaming regulation, unlike MiFID II, remains a matter of national law in Europe, meaning there is currently no passporting mechanism operators can rely on.
The sector’s commercial scale makes the absence of a framework increasingly difficult to ignore. Schembri emphasised that Malta’s approach remains rooted in clear regulation and investor protection, a formula the country has used to attract international operators and maintain credibility.
Regulatory gap widens
The move comes as regulatory and political debate around prediction markets intensifies globally, especially across the United States. Some jurisdictions have imposed outright restrictions.
Others are still working out whether existing financial or gambling laws apply, or whether an entirely new framework is needed. The UK Gambling Commission made it clear that prediction markets operators are expected to secure a betting intermediary licence to operate legally in Britain. These licenses have been around since the 2000s.
The Malta Financial Services Authority has itself issued public warnings to retail investors regarding the risks associated with binary options, contracts for difference, and similar speculative products, a position consistent with the broader EU supervisory trend.
However, legal analysis suggests that well-structured prediction market contracts may sit outside that definition altogether, leaving the regulatory classification genuinely open.
For operators targeting EU consumers, Malta’s initiative is significant. A jurisdiction with an established track record in iGaming regulation, MGA licensing infrastructure, and an existing ecosystem of licensed operators would offer an attractive base, provided the framework is built with those operators in mind.
Consultations remain at an early stage and no draft legislation has been published.
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About the author
Bianca Máthe
Bianca Mathe joined the iGaming industry in 2018 and has since built extensive experience across multiple verticals, working with international gaming organizations on editorial, marketing, and media strategy. She brings a strong understanding of the regulatory, commercial, and technological forces shaping the global iGaming sector.
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