Kalshi is exploring IPO as revenue hits $2B, 89% sports volume

• Kalshi’s annualized revenue has tripled since November 2025 to exceed $2 billion, driven by NBA playoff and FIFA World Cup trading spikes.
• CEO Tarek Mansour rules out an IPO in 2026, with any listing expected no earlier than late 2027 or 2028.
• State legal battles over sports contracts, which account for an estimated 89% of trading volume, remain the primary risk to a public offering

Kalshi, co-founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, is in early discussions about a potential initial public offering, though no public debut is expected before late 2027.

The acknowledgment follows a period of rapid growth that has seen the platform’s annualized revenue triple to $2 billion since November 2025, drawing informal interest from investment banks.

Tarek Mansour, chief executive at Kalshi, told CNBC’s Squawk Box:

“A company of our financial profile with the rate of growth that we’re seeing, that sort of conversation has to happen. People start asking that question. And we’re basically thinking about it, but obviously, we don’t have an answer yet.”

Sources familiar with the company’s finances told The Information that any listing is unlikely before late 2027 or 2028 at the earliest.

Unprecedented revenue growth

Kalshi’s growth has accelerated sharply this year. Monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion in May 2026, up from $14.81 billion in April, with peaks tied to the NBA playoffs and the FIFA World Cup.

During the World Cup’s opening week, the platform recorded $5.1 billion in volume, its largest weekly figure on record. Annualized trading volume has grown from $52 billion to $178 billion over the past year, and institutional trading volume has risen 800% in six months.

That momentum backed a $1 billion Series F on May 7. Coatue led the round, with Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest also participating.

The round placed Kalshi’s valuation at $22 billion, double the figure it achieved just five months prior. The company has now raised $2.685 billion across five rounds since June 2025.

The Financial Times subsequently reported that Kalshi is in talks for a further funding round that could value the company at approximately $40 billion, potentially closing in Q3 2026.

Bernstein has estimated that prediction market volumes could reach $1 trillion by 2030, up from approximately $51 billion last year.

Targeting Wall Street

Retail trading has driven Kalshi’s growth to date, but the company is now pushing harder toward institutional clients. Kalshi completed its first institutional block trade in April 2026, a carbon allowances contract brokered between a Texas hedge fund and a market maker.

Partnerships with Tradeweb, Clear Street, Interactive Brokers, and FIS have been added to support clearing and brokerage for professional participants.

The company has also attached an unusual condition to its IPO banking process. Prospective advisers must integrate their platforms with Kalshi first, bringing institutional trading volume before any mandate is awarded.

Capital from the Series F is earmarked for block trading capabilities, new risk products for hedge funds, asset managers, and insurers, and infrastructure upgrades.

One obstacle to broader institutional adoption is the risk of insider trading on event contracts. Mansour acknowledged the challenge directly. Mansour said:

“It’s a hard problem, but it’s not an impossible one.”

Measures introduced include tighter identity verification and a requirement for users to disclose employer affiliations. As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi holds a structural advantage over decentralized rivals.

In May, it recorded $16.81 billion in trading volume against Polymarket’s $7.08 billion.

Legal battles underway

A wave of state-level legal challenges poses the primary risk to any public offering.

Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman sued Kalshi and Polymarket on June 17, alleging both operate unlicensed sports betting businesses in violation of state law. His office estimated that sports wagering accounted for 89% of Kalshi’s trading volume during a 2025 sample period.

Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket responded with a joint suit to block Kentucky’s 14.25% excise tax on prediction markets, arguing it conflicts with federal law. Illinois has also passed a prediction market tax this year.

States including Ohio, Nevada, New York, and New Mexico have each taken action against the platform. The CFTC has sued multiple states to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over licensed event contract markets, an argument that secured Kalshi a circuit-level win in New Jersey in April.

The jurisdictional question is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court.

CME Group separately sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi’s perpetual futures contracts, arguing the agency bypassed proper rulemaking procedures.