Poll: Americans back sports markets, reject election bets

• A Politico/Public First survey of 2,035 US adults found 44% want election betting banned, compared to 30% who support its legality.
• 53% of respondents back legalizing sports-event contracts, with 12% of adults aged 18 to 34 having already placed a prediction market bet.
• Bloomberg Intelligence projects political and public policy contracts could reach $266bn in annual trading volume by 2030.

A national survey by Politico and Public First has found clear public backing for sports-event prediction market contracts in the United States, with opinion turning sharply against markets tied to elections and political outcomes.

Sports vs politics

The poll, conducted between May 17 and 19 by UK-based Public First, surveyed 2,035 US adults with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. Fifty-three percent of respondents support legalizing sports-event contracts. Only 23% oppose them. Weather derivatives and award show markets also drew backing from roughly half of those surveyed.

Election-related markets produced a different picture. Forty-four percent of respondents said betting on election outcomes should be illegal. Just 30% support legalization. Contracts tied to presidential pardons and public statements drew comparable opposition.

Resistance peaks for contracts linked to conflict. Fifty-seven percent said war-outcome betting should be illegal. For terrorism-related contracts, that figure rises to 64%.

Overall industry sentiment remains tepid. Only 19% view prediction markets positively. Twenty-nine percent hold a negative view, and more than half of all respondents said they would not consider placing a prediction market bet.

The generational divide is significant. Among adults aged 18 to 34, 12% reported having already placed a prediction market bet, double the rate seen across the broader adult population. Some 30% of 18-to-24-year-olds said they would consider betting, against a 17% rate overall.

On regulation, 28% of respondents favor federal government oversight. Fifteen percent preferred state-level control.

Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, said:

“It’s the wild west right now. We’re in real new territory, and it’ll be interesting to see how state and federal governments and others respond to it.”

Volume defies sentiment

Public hesitation has not slowed platform growth. According to Politico, nearly $700 million has already been traded on 2028 US presidential election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket’s international platform.

The 2024 US presidential election generated more than $3.6bn on Polymarket’s international platform, the most traded prediction market event on record.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have described political, election, and public policy contracts as the industry’s greatest opportunity. They project these markets could account for 27% of total trading volume by 2030, rising from roughly 10% in early 2025.

At that scale, annual trading in political contracts would reach approximately $266bn.

Legislation piles up

The poll arrives as lawmakers move on multiple fronts. More than 25 prediction market-related bills have been introduced in Congress this year. The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act would ban contracts on sports and election events.

The Stop Trading on Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act targets markets linked to elections, government actions, military conflicts, and sporting events.

State action is accelerating. Minnesota became the first US state to criminalize prediction market operations. The law, signed by Governor Tim Walz in May, takes effect August 1. A New Jersey bill would tax sports-related contracts at the state’s 19.75% wagering rate, plus a 10% surcharge.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued nine states, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over licensed prediction market platforms. Kentucky is among the most recent. Operators argue their products function as financial contracts rather than gambling, a position the CFTC has broadly supported.

Public opposition to election contracts cuts across party lines. Forty-five percent of Trump voters and 50% of Harris voters surveyed said wagering on election outcomes should be banned. That bipartisan resistance may prove the most significant signal legislators take from the survey.

Platforms continue to expand political market offerings as Congress weighs a federal framework. The gap between public sentiment and commercial ambition will drive some of the sector’s most consequential regulatory decisions ahead of 2028.

Operators with strong positions in sports contracts have a relatively favorable starting point. The path forward for political markets is considerably less certain.