Flutter’s $16.4bn year overshadowed by disappointing 2026 forecast
Table of contents
- Flutter forecast 2026 core profit of $2.97 billion, missing analyst expectations of $3.5 billion by a wide margin.
- The company said FanDuel’s failure to execute its customer rewards strategy during a profitable NFL season contributed to lower engagement and higher churn among bettors.
- FanDuel plans a new loyalty programme in Q2 2026 and is expanding its prediction markets product across all 50 US states.
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT; LSE: FLTR), the world’s biggest online betting company, watched its share price fall more than 9% on Thursday after it admitted a costly misstep with American customers and delivered a profit outlook that left Wall Street deeply unimpressed.
The company, which owns FanDuel in the US as well as Paddy Power, Betfair, and PokerStars globally, told investors it expects core profit to grow by just 4% in 2026, reaching $2.97 billion. Analysts had pencilled in $3.5 billion. The gap between the two figures tells the story of a company navigating a difficult moment in its most important market.
What went wrong with the NFL
The trouble started during the American football season. FanDuel had a financially strong run as results went in the bookmaker’s favour. When favourites win, bettors lose, and the house keeps more money. That sounds like good news, but in practice, it backfired.
Customers who lost more than usual pulled back. They bet less, engaged less, and some stopped altogether. Flutter did not do enough to keep them interested through bonuses and promotions, the tools operators use to stay front of mind with players.
The company said this contributed to lower customer engagement and higher churn among bettors. When the NFL playoffs arrived, the absence of major-market teams drained even more of the excitement that typically makes the postseason one of betting’s biggest commercial moments.
Peter Jackson, Chief Executive Officer of Flutter, said the group did not “implement its generosity strategy effectively in light of those outcomes,” speaking to Reuters. It is a candid admission from the leader of a company that holds a 41% US sports betting market share through FanDuel.
Flutter acknowledged that betting volumes improved month to month and said it expects FanDuel’s performance to recover steadily throughout 2026.
A strong year overshadowed by a weak outlook
The irony is that 2025 was, by most measures, a very good year for Flutter. The group reported revenue of $16.4 billion, up 17% year on year. The number of active monthly players rose 14%. Core profit increased 21% to $2.85 billion.
The group did post a net loss of $407 million for the year, primarily due to a non-cash impairment of approximately $556 million linked to its exit from India following adverse regulatory changes.
Beyond the US, Flutter operates across several major markets. It runs Paddy Power and Betfair in the UK and Ireland, Sportsbet in Australia, Sisal in Italy, and PokerStars across multiple countries. It has also entered Brazil as that country opens its regulated betting market. In Central and Eastern Europe, the group posted double-digit growth in 2025, including a record market share in Georgia.
Despite these positives, it is the US that moves Flutter’s share price. FanDuel is the group’s biggest earner and the centrepiece of its growth story since Flutter moved its primary stock exchange listing to New York in 2024.
“Flutter delivered strong 2025 results. Our unparalleled global scale and ongoing product innovation helped us reach almost 40 million customers across our portfolio of market-leading, local hero brands during the year. We made clear progress against our strategic priorities; maintaining our US leadership position in both sportsbook and iGaming; entering an exciting and incremental new category in the US with the launch of FanDuel Predicts; completing our strategic acquisitions of Snai and NSX; and delivering several important milestones across our International segment’s transformation programs,” Jackson said.
The fix: loyalty rewards and a new product
Flutter’s plan to win back disengaged American customers has two main parts.
The first is a loyalty programme, set to launch in the second quarter of 2026. The idea is to reward customers who keep betting, even when results go against them. Done well, it keeps players coming back rather than drifting to rivals, and positions FanDuel more competitively ahead of the 2026/27 NFL season.
The second is FanDuel Predicts, a prediction markets platform launched in late December in partnership with CME Group, one of the world’s leading derivatives exchanges. Prediction markets let users bet on the outcome of real-world events, ranging from sports results to political developments to entertainment awards.
The product is already live in all 50 states for non-sports markets. In 18 states, including California, Texas, and Florida, where traditional sports betting remains illegal, it also covers sporting outcomes.
That last point matters. Flutter is using prediction markets to reach bettors in states where it cannot currently offer a conventional sportsbook, meaningfully expanding the company’s addressable audience in the US.
The investment will not come cheap. Flutter expects FanDuel Predicts to reduce 2026 core profit by up to $300 million. That figure is one of the main factors behind the gap between Flutter’s guidance and analyst expectations.
Pressure from both sides of the Atlantic
Flutter is also contending with a tax increase in Britain. The UK government raised online gaming taxes in its autumn budget, lifting the iGaming rate from 21% to 40% from April 2026 and introducing a new sports betting rate of 25% from April 2027.
Flutter estimates the pre-mitigation impact at approximately $320 million to core profit in 2026 and $540 million in 2027, with partial offsets expected through operational efficiencies and potential market share gains.
On a more positive note, management pointed to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted primarily in the United States, as a significant commercial opportunity. With Flutter operating across regulated markets globally and FanDuel positioned in the host nation, the tournament could provide a meaningful boost to player acquisition and betting volumes later in the year. The group’s full-year 2026 revenue guidance stands at $18.4 billion.
For now, the next NFL season is the real test. If Flutter can keep American customers engaged even when the odds go in the house’s favour, the company’s long-term growth case remains intact. If the same pattern repeats, investors will want more than a loyalty card as an answer.
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About the author
Bianca Máthe
Bianca Mathe joined the iGaming industry in 2018 and has since built extensive experience across multiple verticals, working with international gaming organizations on editorial, marketing, and media strategy. She brings a strong understanding of the regulatory, commercial, and technological forces shaping the global iGaming sector.
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