Customer-friendly results force Super Group guidance cut

• Q3 revenue rises 10% to $611m as adjusted EBITDA climbs 8% to $165m
• Customer-friendly sports results cost around $40m in revenue and $25m in adjusted EBITDA
• Board approves a $150m share buyback running until the end of December 2027

Super Group lowers its 2026 revenue forecast after sports bettors won more often than expected in the third quarter. The Betway and Spin owner still grew revenue 10% to $611 million, and on 3 November it also approved a $150 million share buyback.

Where the $40m went

The sports margin is the share of each bet the operator keeps. It fell to 12.1% in the quarter, according to the company’s earnings presentation. A year earlier it was 12.8%, and the average over the past two years was 13.7%.

Super Group says the gap cost it about $40 million in revenue and around $25 million in adjusted EBITDA. Customers bet 4% more on sport than a year earlier. The group still made 2% less from it.

Casino made up the difference. Casino gross revenue rose 16%, and the amount wagered on casino games reached a record, up 11%. Casino now brings in 85% of net revenue, with sports betting at 15%.

As a result, adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $165 million, according to the results statement. Monthly active customers increased 9% to 6 million.

Neal Menashe, chief executive officer at Super Group, said:

“Q3 once again demonstrated the strength and resilience of our casino-led business model. Despite customer-friendly sports results, we continued to grow revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. Casino provides a durable earnings base that allows us to absorb short-term sports volatility.”

Two tax items lift profit

Profit for the period rose to $142 million from $96 million. Two one-off tax items account for part of the increase. Super Group leaves both out of its adjusted EBITDA figure.

The first came from a tribunal ruling in the group’s favour on a 2018 to 2022 tax dispute. After it, Super Group released money it had set aside: $17 million for remote gaming duty and $5 million for penalties. The company says the case may not be over.

The second was a $17 million refund of Austrian gaming taxes. The refund followed a reassessment of what the group owed between 2014 and 2022.

Africa grows fastest

Revenue in Africa rose 17% to $262 million. The region now accounts for 43% of the group’s segment revenue. Online casino revenue there climbed to $205 million from $169 million. Sports betting edged up to $57 million from $55 million.

Profit grew faster still. Adjusted EBITDA in Africa rose 23% to $88 million. Revenue grew 42% in Nigeria, 62% in Mozambique and 12% in South Africa.

Other companies are also targeting the region. GiG Software has made its 888AFRICA deal the centrepiece of its recovery plan for 2027.

Menashe added:

“We also delivered strong profitability across Africa, and International made meaningful progress across product, pricing and technology.”

International earns more on less

The International segment covers every market outside Africa. Its revenue rose to $344 million from $328 million. Of that, America brought in $193 million, Europe $115 million and the rest of the world $36 million. Sports betting revenue dropped to $33 million from $36 million.

Profit told a different story. Adjusted EBITDA rose 24% to $93 million, even with higher UK gaming taxes to pay.

A lower ceiling for 2026

Super Group now expects 2026 revenue of $2.525 billion to $2.575 billion. It forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $720 million.

That marks a reversal. The group kept its forecast unchanged after a record first quarter, then raised it in August to more than $2.6 billion in revenue and more than $710 million in adjusted EBITDA.

The highest point of the new revenue range is now lower than the minimum it promised in August. Profit expectations held up better: the middle of the new EBITDA range is $710 million, the same as the old minimum.

The presentation gives four reasons for the cut:

• spending on fast-growing markets
• higher UK taxes
• the Alberta market after regulation
• the weak sports margin

On the earnings call, analysts asked whether online casino demand was slowing. Management said it was not.

$150m buyback approved

Super Group finished September with $602 million in cash, up from $513 million at the end of 2025. It paid $203 million in dividends in the first nine months. That takes the total returned to shareholders over the past 12 months to $223 million.

The board approved the buyback on 30 October. It allows the group to buy back up to $150 million of its own shares until the end of December 2027. The board can extend, shorten or cancel it at any time.

Flutter took the opposite approach this week, cutting its forecast and deciding to pause its buybacks.

Alinda van Wyk, chief financial officer at Super Group, said:

“With over $600 million of cash and a robust balance sheet, the Board has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $150 million, reflecting our confidence in the long-term value of Super Group while preserving flexibility to continue investing in attractive organic and strategic opportunities.”

December is the test

Management said the fourth quarter has started well. Last year showed how fast that can change. In February, Menashe said customer-friendly results in December 2025 cost the group about $20 million in EBITDA.

Other operators have had similar problems. Betsson pointed to softer sports betting margins, higher taxes and lower B2B income when its Q3 profit fell 44%.

New regulated markets are next on Super Group’s list. The presentation says it has secured three online casino licences in New Zealand ahead of regulation there in 2027. It also expects to launch in Namibia that year.