Hong Kong halts basketball betting over prediction markets

September launch shelved
Prediction market concerns
Broader regulatory implications

Hong Kong’s Home and Youth Affairs Bureau has suspended the planned September launch of regulated basketball betting, citing rapid growth in prediction markets.
The government has instructed the Hong Kong Jockey Club to pause preparations while authorities conduct an in-depth study into prediction market platforms.
Global prediction market trading volumes reached $64bn in 2025, a threefold increase on 2024, and are projected to grow fivefold by 2030.

Hong Kong has suspended plans to introduce regulated basketball betting just seven months after the Legislative Council approved legislation to permit it, with the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau pointing to the explosive growth of prediction markets as grounds for an indefinite delay.

The bureau announced the suspension on 13 April, warning that sports betting on prediction markets is illegal in Hong Kong, but that their rapid growth has created conditions requiring further study before the government can proceed.

September launch shelved

The basketball betting programme had been scheduled to launch in September, in time for the 2026/27 NBA season, with the Hong Kong Jockey Club widely expected to serve as the sole licensed operator.

The Legislative Council passed the Betting Duty Amendment Bill in September 2025, introducing a 50% tax on net stake receipts, in line with the existing rate for football wagering. The bill cleared its third reading with 77 votes in favor, two against, and two abstentions.

The stated purpose of the legislation was not revenue generation, but channeling illegal demand into a regulated framework. A previous HKJC-commissioned survey indicated that illegal basketball betting in Hong Kong reached between HK$70bn and HK$90bn in 2024. The club believed legalization could reclaim 30–40% of that volume from illegal channels, generating around HK$1.5bn in annual tax revenue once the market matures.

Alice Mak, Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs, said:

“If we regulate sports betting now because it’s new, it will make such activities more appealing to the public. We are concerned that people will then become more interested in prediction markets, and some may even start gambling on them.”

Prediction market concerns

Government figures showed trading volume in prediction markets reached $64bn globally in 2025, up 300% from $16bn in 2024. Monthly volumes rose from under $100m at the start of 2024 to more than $13bn by the end of last year.

Projections suggest monthly trading volumes could increase fivefold by 2030, with more than 40% of activity expected to be linked to sports-related events. Authorities said that, given these trends, introducing basketball betting at this stage could draw more users toward illegal prediction market platforms and indirectly support unregulated activity.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become prominent examples of the sector, with blockchain-based structures enabling cross-border participation and, in some cases, anonymous transactions. Operations utilising cryptocurrencies complicate identification, monitoring, and enforcement.

The HKJC confirmed it had already committed substantial investment and completed preparatory work for the launch, adding that a basketball product could still be ready within three to six months if licensing proceeds at a later date. The club said it respects the government’s decision and will await further instructions.

Adrian Pedro Ho, a member of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, said:

“Basketball betting has not launched yet. There is no reason to introduce something new that could encourage and fuel illegal gambling activities.”

No timeline has been given for when the government’s analysis will conclude or when basketball betting will be revisited.

Broader regulatory implications

The decision reflects a deepening tension between traditional gambling regulation and the rise of decentralised prediction platforms that often fall outside existing legal frameworks.

For the HKJC and investors who had been preparing for the market’s debut, the halt introduces significant uncertainty. The club’s monopoly model, covering horse racing, football, and lotteries, was poised to expand for the first time in over two decades. That expansion is now indefinitely deferred, with no guarantee the regulatory landscape will resolve in the near term.

How Hong Kong navigates the boundary between legal sports wagering and unregulated platforms could inform the approach taken by other Asia-Pacific regulators grappling with the same question.

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