Betano reveals World Cup betting trends from 230,000 wagers
- Betano data from more than 230,000 bets shows fans overwhelmingly back their own national teams to win the World Cup.
- Kylian Mbappé leads outright top scorer markets, while Cristiano Ronaldo tops MVP predictions despite turning 41.
- France is the most-backed team to finish as the tournament’s highest scorer; Haiti and Curaçao lead the lowest-scoring predictions.
Kaizen Gaming’s Betano platform has published a pre-tournament data snapshot drawn from more than 230,000 wagers, revealing how bettors across its markets are approaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup ahead of the tournament’s opening.
The data, extracted on 4 June, offers a window into user behaviour across outright, player and team-level markets. The clearest finding: national loyalty overwhelms objective analysis when fans pick a tournament winner.
Home bias dominates
In Argentina, 79% of local Betano users have selected their own national team as the outright winner. In Brazil, the figure stands at 75%. German and Portuguese users show similarly strong domestic sentiment, with 57% in each country backing their home side.
The pattern holds in markets where the national team carries longer odds. In Colombia, the national team attracted 19% of outright winner bets, placing second only to Portugal, which drew 24% among Colombian users.
In non-participating nations such as Bulgaria, Denmark, Peru and Romania, Portugal, Spain and France have emerged as the most popular outright selections.
The homer bias presents both a pricing opportunity and a liability consideration for operators with large domestic user bases. Betano, which holds official tournament supporter status for the 2026 World Cup, will have meaningful book management decisions to navigate across the group stage and beyond.
Player markets: Ronaldo, Mbappé, Olise
Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41 years old, leads MVP predictions with 21% of relevant bets across the Betano platform. Spain’s Lamine Yamal is second at 12%, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappé at 10%.
In top goalscorer markets, Mbappé takes a clear lead at 26%, ahead of England’s Harry Kane at 12% and Ronaldo at 8%. The top assists market tells a different story. France’s Michael Olise is the runaway favourite at 29%, supported by a club season in which he registered 31 assists at FC Bayern Munich. Bruno Fernandes follows at 18%, with Lamine Yamal third at 13%.
The goalkeeper market has produced a notable outsider selection. Morocco’s Bono leads with 18% of relevant bets, ahead of Portugal’s Diogo Costa at 13% and Belgium’s Thibaut Courtois at 11%.
The Bono preference likely reflects value-seeking behaviour, given the more prominent odds attached to established favourites like Argentina’s Emiliano Martínez or France’s Mike Maignan.
Team scoring predictions
France leads the highest-scoring team market with 28% of bets, followed by Germany at 16% and Portugal at 14%. At the other end, Caribbean debutants Haiti (25%) and Curaçao (19%) are the top selections for lowest-scoring team.
In a curious local anomaly, 11% of Brazilian users backed their own Seleção to finish as the tournament’s lowest-scoring team, placing them third on that specific market alongside Haiti, Curaçao, Cape Verde and Iraq. The result sits in sharp contrast to Brazil’s enduring reputation for attacking football.
Local market data surfaces further quirks. In Argentina, Lionel Messi is the top pick for assists at 29%, yet only 7% have selected him as top goalscorer. In Colombia, James Rodríguez holds a 43% preference among local users to lead the assists chart.
Kaizen Gaming had flagged Argentina as a key market ahead of the tournament, and the local data bears that out. Brazilians show strong loyalty to Neymar, with 16% backing him for tournament MVP despite his recent injury battles.
As the World Cup moves through its group stage, operators with cross-market exposure will be watching liability positions across these heavily skewed national markets closely.
For Kaizen Gaming, whose global expansion strategy is closely tied to major sporting events, the tournament represents both a commercial opportunity and a test of its trading infrastructure following its acquisition of GameplAI.
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