Unregulated gambling market reaches $5.9tn, GCI estimates
Table of contents
- Regtech firm Gaming Compliance International estimates the global unregulated online gambling market reached $5.9 trillion in wagering value in 2025.
- Unregulated operators account for 78% of global online gaming gross gaming revenue, against 22% for the regulated sector.
- Prediction market product spillover and illegal sports streaming are identified as key drivers of further growth in 2026.
Regtech supplier Gaming Compliance International (GCI) has estimated the global value of unregulated online gambling reached $5.9 trillion in 2025, a 4% rise from $5.7 trillion the prior year, according to its GCI Online Gaming 2025: Global report published on 18 May.
The figure marks continued growth in the sector, with 2024‘s total representing a 12% increase on 2023‘s $5.1 trillion.
The analysis covered online gambling activity only, excluding retail and land-based operations. GCI counted only operators actively conducting transactions and targeting local markets; accessible but non-transacting sites were excluded.
Scale of the problem
GCI defined unregulated online gambling as unlicensed products actively targeting local consumers. The category covers sports betting, casino, poker, crypto gambling and lottery. Prediction markets on sports events are included as unregulated, except within the United States, where they are classified and regulated as financial products by the CFTC.
Unregulated operators account for 78% of global online gaming GGR in 2025, with regulated operators holding the remaining 22%.
GCI characterises the unregulated sector as the world’s third-largest economy, exceeding the GDP of every nation except the United States and China, and identifies it as the largest form of cybercrime globally.
Matt Holt, CEO of GCI, said:
“At $5.9 trillion in wagering value, unregulated online gambling is one of the largest economic systems in the world, operating largely outside regulatory oversight. Regulators are not facing a marginal challenge, but a dominant one – the majority of activity is occurring beyond the regulated perimeter. Our role is to provide full transparency across the total marketplace, enabling regulators to act with confidence.”
Ismail Vali, President of GCI, said:
“What we are now seeing is a three-sector gaming marketplace in every jurisdiction – regulated, unregulated, and unacknowledged – and it is this third layer that is accelerating consumer confusion, unregulated growth, and regulatory complexity at scale. The audience does not distinguish between these sectors.
“They experience one marketplace, where everything is accessible and everything competes equally. In a world where you can bet on anything, consumers are increasingly betting on everything – this is the gamification of everything. If you cannot see the entire marketplace – regulated, unregulated, and unacknowledged – you cannot control it.”
Three-sector marketplace
The report divides the online gambling ecosystem into three categories: regulated, unregulated and “unacknowledged.”
The unacknowledged category covers platforms that replicate gambling mechanics but fall outside traditional regulatory classification, including social casinos, sweepstakes, fake financial products, skins trading, TikTok contests and prediction markets.
GCI describes the outcome as a “White Noise Marketplace” in which consumers are unable to distinguish between regulated, unregulated and unacknowledged products. The report states the convergence of these three sectors drives declining commercial revenue for regulated operators, rising tax losses and escalating consumer risk.
To size the market, GCI applied automated surveillance and human analysis across all platforms using its proprietary “Value Per Visit” metric, which quantifies spending variances between regulated and unregulated operators.
Growth drivers ahead
The report identifies several factors likely to accelerate unregulated market growth through 2026.
Prediction market product spillover is cited as a primary concern, with GCI noting that regulated versions risk being cannibalised by unregulated equivalents. The report also states that unregulated gambling advertisements featured on more than 80% of illegal sports streaming content in the US and UK in 2024 and 2025, with mass-market recruitment surging around major events such as the Super Bowl, March Madness and the FIFA World Cup.
Crypto-linked gambling products and regulation exploitation – covering advertising, KYC, self-exclusion, age limits, responsible gaming and taxation – are identified as further drivers.
The regulatory picture varies considerably by jurisdiction. Brazil took aim at prediction markets last month, blocking 28 platforms and formally declaring the products illegal. Gibraltar moved in the opposite direction, with Predict Street securing the territory’s first prediction market licence in April.
For regulators and licensed operators, GCI’s findings reinforce the need for oversight that spans the total marketplace, rather than the licensed sector alone. With major sporting events including the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaching, the report warns that seasonal spikes in unregulated activity are likely to intensify.
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