Survey: 15% of Americans trade prediction contracts
- A new survey finds 15% of Americans have placed sports trades on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The figure is close to the 27% who hold active online sportsbook accounts, signaling rapid mainstream adoption.
- 65% of respondents support applying the same state regulations to prediction platforms as to licensed sportsbooks.
One in six Americans, roughly 50 million people, has placed a sports trade on a prediction market platform, according to new annual survey data released this week.
The findings, from the American Sports Fanship Survey conducted by the Siena Research Institute (SRI) and St. Bonaventure University’s Jandoli School of Communication, clearly show how fast prediction markets have broken into mainstream US gambling culture.
The survey, conducted February 16 to 27, 2026, among 3,084 US residents, found that 15% of Americans have placed a bet on a sporting event using an online event-based prediction market such as Polymarket or Kalshi.
Based on the current US population of 342 million, that translates to more than 50 million people engaged in sports-related trades on platforms including Kalshi, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.
Sportsbook adoption climbs
27% of Americans now hold an active online sportsbook account, up from 22% in 2025 and 19% in 2024, with 52% of men aged 18 to 49 reporting active accounts. Prediction markets reached 15% penetration far faster than licensed sportsbooks achieved comparable figures.
Participation is higher among the most engaged demographics: 42% of the most avid sports fans and 33% of men aged 18 to 49 reported placing sports trades on prediction platforms. An analysis cited in the survey found that approximately 90% of Kalshi’s estimated annualized revenue is linked to sports contracts.
Dr. Brian Moritz, Associate Professor and sports journalism master’s program director at the Jandoli School, said:
“Legal and accessible gambling is perhaps the defining issue facing the sports world in the 2020s. What our survey shows is that sports fans have a complicated relationship with sports gambling.”
Regulation debate intensifies
65% of respondents strongly or somewhat agree that prediction platforms should face the same state regulations as other sports betting activities, provided they allow users to profit from predicting sporting outcomes. Support reaches 73% among men aged 18 to 49.
Support for stronger federal oversight has also risen sharply, with 67% now backing regulation specifically designed to protect consumers from compulsive gambling, up from 58% in 2025.
The SAFE Bet Act, which would establish federal rules for online sportsbooks, continues to draw majority support across all demographic groups as of April 2026.
Prediction platforms have grown despite strong pushback from state officials who argue that sports event contracts represent unlicensed sports betting. The platforms maintain that compliance with Commodity Futures Trading Commission guidelines removes any obligation to seek state licensing.
Nevada has won court rulings against Kalshi and Coinbase barring them from offering contracts tied to sports, entertainment, and politics. Massachusetts also secured a temporary restraining order against Kalshi.
Harm metrics worsen
60% of bettors said they have chased losses by placing larger bets after losing, up from 52% in 2025. The proportion wagering $100 or more in a single day rose to 63%, compared with 56% a year earlier. 31% of bettors said someone has raised concerns about their gambling behavior.
Among sportsbook users, 42% report having bet more than they intended to, and 43% said they felt bad or ashamed after losing, both figures up from 37% in 2025.
The intersection of prediction markets and rising harm metrics creates a pointed regulatory challenge. Platforms such as Kalshi operate in 49 states, with users able to start trading from the age of 18, three years below the minimum age enforced by most licensed sportsbooks.
The data arrives as the sector attracts major operator attention. BetMGM recently trimmed its full-year guidance partly citing competition from prediction platforms.
A Bank of America report placed potential annual US sports event contract volume at $1.1 trillion. High Roller and Crypto.com have also finalized a deal to bring a prediction markets product to the US market.
With adoption accelerating and harm indicators trending upward, pressure on Congress and the CFTC to define a clear regulatory framework will only intensify. How quickly federal legislators act could determine whether industry growth outpaces the consumer protection infrastructure built to manage it.
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