Deutsche Bank projects $3.3bn World Cup betting handle
Table of contents
- Deutsche Bank sets a base-case US World Cup betting handle of $3.3bn, with an upside scenario of $4.1bn.
- An expanded 104-game format and a 20% larger legal betting population are among the key growth drivers identified in the analysis.
- FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are each forecast to see significant incremental handle, with operators investing heavily in customer acquisition around the tournament.
Deutsche Bank projects a base-case US betting handle of $3.3bn for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with a downside of $2.5bn and an upside of $4.1bn, per analysis by the bank’s analyst Steven Pizzella.
The base case alone would more than double the estimated $1.6bn wagered on the 2022 Qatar tournament.
Sizing the opportunity
Pizzella, writing on May 18, described the World Cup as something that “could be a short term catalyst for digital stocks.”
The tournament has expanded from 64 games in 2022 to 104 in 2026, and the number of Americans legally eligible to place sports bets has risen by roughly 20%, from approximately 104 million to 135 million, per the Deutsche Bank analysis.
With matches spread across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, North American fans face none of the time-zone friction that characterised the 2022 Qatar tournament, which ran seven hours ahead of US Eastern time. Greater domestic media coverage is expected to sustain engagement across all 104 matches.
A separate PwC survey found that 58% of Americans plan to bet on the World Cup, with around a third of those intending to wager at least $250.
Operator projections
Per the Deutsche Bank analysis as reported by industry outlets, FanDuel is forecast to see an additional $1.3bn in handle, DraftKings an estimated $1.1bn, and BetMGM approximately $250m. Operators are treating the tournament as a structural customer acquisition opportunity.
Flutter CEO Peter Jackson said during the Q4 2025 earnings call that “the 2026 FIFA World Cup represents a unique moment in a soccer-obsessed market as to take market share,” adding that Flutter expects to invest more in Brazil ahead of the tournament, accepting near-term profitability impact in exchange for longer-term scale.
Flutter CFO Rob Coldrake has also cautioned against viewing the World Cup purely as a profit-making event, framing it instead as an opportunity to generate long-term revenue through new customer acquisition.
Industry research points to substantial promotional outlay across the sector. Sportsbooks have committed to spending an estimated $400m on World Cup promotions, including deposit matches, odds boosts, and free bets targeting new soccer bettors, per a SweepsPulse report.
The same report estimates 68% of all World Cup bets will be placed through mobile apps, up from 41% during the 2018 tournament.
Prediction markets join the fray
Pizzella also highlighted the growing influence of prediction markets, citing Kalshi data placing the US at a 42% probability of advancing to the round of 16.
Polymarket has already recorded over $1.1bn in total trading volume on its 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner market since the contract launched in July 2025, per figures published by the platform.
New Jersey, one of the tournament’s host states, is separately considering a temporary sports betting tax increase to offset expenses associated with hosting World Cup matches.
The $1.6bn spread between Deutsche Bank’s downside and upside reflects genuine uncertainty about how deeply a first-time North American World Cup will move US betting behavior.
For operators, converting World Cup-driven traffic into durable, long-term player relationships may prove as commercially important as the handle figures themselves. Regulators in host states, monitoring promotional volumes and responsible gambling compliance, will face their highest-pressure test to date.
Industry gears up
Operators have been positioning themselves across multiple markets ahead of the tournament. Betano was named an Official Tournament Supporter for Europe and South America, Stake launched in Mexico ahead of the competition, and Kaizen Gaming backed Argentina with a regional sponsorship deal.
Bet365 secured a French licence ahead of the tournament, BC.Game launched a $2m promotional campaign with a $500k leaderboard, and Midnite sent its betting app to space in a high-altitude World Cup stunt.
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