Bettors back Haaland’s Norway over England

• Betano is backed by 75% of international bettors to see Norway qualify over England in the World Cup quarter-final.
• Argentina, Spain and France are also favoured to reach the semi-finals, according to Betano’s “To Qualify” market.
• The data spans 18 markets excluding the UK and was extracted on the morning of 8 July 2026.

International bettors on Kaizen Gaming’s Betano platform are backing Erling Haaland’s Norway to qualify over England at the World Cup quarter-final stage, according to proprietary data the operator released on 9 July 2026, based on wagers extracted the previous morning.

Excluding wagers placed in the UK, 75% of users across 18 markets have selected Norway to progress, with Argentina, Spain and France emerging as the other teams most fancied by bettors to reach the semi-finals.

Norway’s historic run

Norway reached its first-ever World Cup quarter-final after Haaland scored twice in the closing minutes to beat five-time champions Brazil 2-1 in the previous knockout round. Those two goals took Haaland to seven goals for the tournament, matching Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe for the most scored by any player so far.

The run marks new territory for Norway. The team’s previous best World Cup finish was reaching the tournament’s opening knockout stage, in 1938 and 1998, and it had not returned to the finals since France 1998 before this year’s campaign.

Norway meets England in Miami on Saturday 11 July. England advanced after a 3-2 win over co-hosts Mexico, in which Jude Bellingham scored twice and Harry Kane converted a penalty, despite England playing much of the second half with a player down after a sending-off.

Betano’s quarter-final picture

Betano’s “To Qualify” market shows similarly lopsided sentiment in the other three quarter-finals. Argentina is favoured by 80% of users to qualify over Switzerland in Kansas City, while France has been backed by 67% to progress past Morocco in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Spain’s match against Belgium in Los Angeles is rated the closest contest of the round, with users splitting 55-45% in favour of the Spanish side. All four quarter-finals are being played between 9 and 11 July, ahead of the final on 19 July.

The figures reflect betting activity rather than a formal survey, giving operators and media a real-time proxy for public sentiment as the tournament narrows to its final eight teams.

Betting on the upsets

Betano’s data also points to some prescience among its users around the tournament’s biggest shocks.

Some 45% of users had predicted Norway would eliminate Brazil before the previous round was played, while 42% say they saw Paraguay’s progression through the tournament coming, a run that included eliminating Germany two rounds earlier.

Brazil’s exit prompted an immediate response elsewhere in the market. Rival operator Superbet refunded every outright bet placed on Brazil to win the tournament following its elimination, underlining how quickly sportsbooks are moving to turn shock results into goodwill gestures during the knockout stage.

This is not Betano’s first release of proprietary tournament data. The operator previously shared betting trends drawn from 230,000 wagers placed during the group stage, which found fans overwhelmingly backing their own national teams.

Kaizen Gaming is an official FIFA World Cup 2026 tournament supporter for Europe and South America, a partnership FIFA confirmed ahead of the competition’s expanded 48-team debut.

Operators lean into knockouts

Betano is far from alone in using the knockout rounds to drive engagement.

FanDuel has built what it describes as its biggest-ever generosity program for the tournament, drawing on products from parent company Flutter Entertainment’s wider portfolio.

In Brazil, Flutter-owned Betnacional completed what the group called its fastest-ever platform integration ahead of the tournament, migrating onto Flutter’s proprietary risk and trading system in time for the knockout stage.

Close to finish

As the World Cup narrows to its final eight, proprietary betting data is becoming a recurring marketing tool for operators looking to extend their visibility beyond match-day promotions.

For Betano, tying the release to Haaland’s breakout tournament and Norway’s underdog run gives the data an obvious news hook heading into the weekend’s fixtures.

With Norway, Argentina, Spain and France all backed to advance, operators tracking outright market movement will be watching whether user sentiment on Betano lines up with bookmaker pricing elsewhere, particularly if Norway’s run continues to defy the wider odds on offer.