Catena Media cuts targets as AI search bites

• Q3 revenue falls 29% to €8.3m and adjusted EBITDA drops to €0.7m.
• Catena Media scraps its 2026 double-digit organic growth target.
• Listed affiliate peers diverge as AI search reshapes traffic.

Catena Media has dropped its 2026 growth targets after preliminary Q3 revenue fell 29% to €8.3m. The Malta-headquartered affiliate blames generative search for cutting traffic across the sector, and its shares slid more than 21% in Stockholm on Monday.

A sharp reversal

According to preliminary, unaudited figures published on 16 October, Catena Media generated €8.3m in Q3 revenue, down from €11.6m a year earlier.

Adjusted EBITDA fell to €0.7m from €2.9m. That figure includes €0.7m released from accruals made earlier in the year for the 2026 employee bonus programme.

Over nine months, revenue came in at €30.1m against €31.0m. Adjusted EBITDA for the period reached €4.6m, down from €5.2m.

The group also expects a non-cash impairment of €30m to €35m on intangible assets in Q3, under the IAS 36 accounting standard. It no longer expects double-digit organic growth in revenue or adjusted EBITDA this year.

Six months ago the picture looked very different. Catena grew revenue from continuing operations by 26% in Q1 2026, then saw it slip 1% to €9.5m in Q2.

Shares were trading 21.51% lower at SEK2.50 in Stockholm earlier on Monday, according to Gaming Intelligence, as investors digested the warning issued late on Friday.

Search stops paying

Catena’s business rests on a familiar affiliate funnel. A user searches for a casino or sportsbook, lands on a review or comparison page, and clicks through to an operator. The affiliate is paid once that player deposits.

Generative search interrupts the first step. Catena says AI-generated answers continue to change how users discover brands online, reducing new traffic across the affiliate industry.

Its own traditional search rankings also slipped. The company attributes this to AI-assisted personalised search and to search engines continuing to elevate lower-relevancy content. Some operators also trimmed marketing budgets over the usual summer slowdown.

Manuel Stan, CEO, Catena Media, said:

“This was a weak quarter and our results reflect that. The search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift, and as a predominantly CPA-based business our results reflect the effects of these changes immediately and in full.”

Click data from outside the gambling sector tells a similar story. A Pew Research Center study found Google users clicked a traditional result 8% of the time when an AI summary appeared, against 15% without one.

A field experiment by academics Saharsh Agarwal and Ananya Sen, published on SSRN in April 2026, measured a 39.8% drop in outbound organic clicks from AI Overviews. The authors suggested Google’s AI Mode could reduce traffic to publishers further still.

In practice, ranking well no longer guarantees the visit. When the answer appears on the results page, the comparison site behind the information may never receive the click it relies on.

The CPA trap

Under cost-per-acquisition (CPA) deals, operators pay a one-off fee for each depositing player. Under revenue share, the affiliate earns a portion of that player’s value for as long as they keep playing.

Catena acquires more than 90% of new customers on CPA terms. Its income therefore tracks new sign-ups almost in real time, and the group says it has limited recurring revenue to absorb this combination of pressures.

A revenue-share book behaves differently. Players referred in earlier years keep generating income when new volumes fall, which cushions the blow without removing it.

Gentoo Media shows both sides. Revenue share made up 60% of its Q2 revenue and CPA 12%, according to AffPapa. Gentoo still reported a 9% fall in Q2 revenue to €22.9m, and its shares dropped to a fresh 52-week low.

The group cut full-year revenue guidance to €97m to €100m, from €105m to €115m. Earlier in the year, it had already flagged an AI search squeeze on new depositor volumes.

Better Collective has so far moved the other way. The Copenhagen-based group reported 9% organic revenue growth to €89m in Q2, with EBITDA before special items up 20% to €27m, and kept full-year guidance intact.

It pointed to North America, talent-led media and prediction markets among its growth drivers. Sponsorships, paid media and its own AI products now sit alongside search in how it earns.

Betting on TraffiqX

Stan positioned Catena’s response around diversification and brand strength. He added:

“The results reinforce the strategic direction we set out in the second quarter. We are reducing our dependence on search by diversifying our revenue streams, including through our newly announced TraffiqX project and new verticals like prediction markets, and by continuing to build the strength of our brands through investing in customer loyalty programmes. These efforts will be further supported by TraffiqX, the new platform we plan to launch in the first quarter of 2027.”

The release gives no further detail on TraffiqX beyond that launch window. The full interim report on 10 November, out at 17:35 CET with a webcast at 18:00 CET, is the next chance for management to explain it.

Until then, Catena stays tied to search traffic it no longer fully controls. Paid campaigns and loyalty programmes can add revenue, but neither replaces the scale of organic acquisition quickly.

For operators, fewer players arriving through comparison sites means fewer CPA volumes from search-led partners. More of the acquisition budget is likely to move to paid media, sponsorships and direct partnerships.